CSCO · Forward model · Security
What has to happen in Security
Model as of
This page changes Security inside the complete CSCO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Security
Basis quarter$2.23B
Final quarter$3.00B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix13%
The Splunk line. $2,226M in the basis quarter, +14% year over year, but only +2% for FY2026 at $8,232M once the acquisition anniversary washed through. Cisco publishes no security ARR, no seats and no Splunk-versus-legacy split, so this is a reported-category growth line and not a subscription model.
Last four quarters
2026 Q1
$1.98B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.02B
Reported
2026 Q3
$2.01B
Reported
2026 Q4
$2.23B
Reported
Splunk security analytics and SIEMNetwork security, zero trust and SASENon-human identity security (Astrix, acquired FY2026 Q4)
Sequential growth
+1.5%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
1.5% a quarter, about 6% a year: better than the 2% FY2026 print, well short of the +14% Q4.
Security
Latest: $3.00B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.01B |
| 2024Q2 | $973M |
| 2024Q3 | $1.30B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.79B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.02B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.11B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.01B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.95B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.98B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.02B |
| 2026Q3 | $2.01B |
| 2026Q4 | $2.23B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.26B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.29B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.33B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.36B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.40B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.43B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.47B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.55B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.58B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.62B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.70B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.74B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.78B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.82B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.87B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.91B |
| 2031Q3E | $2.95B |
| 2031Q4E | $3.00B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- FY2026 grew 2%; strip the Q4 +14% and the line is flat. The model takes the middle of those two facts rather than extrapolating the quarter, because Cisco publishes nothing that would show whether Splunk is compounding.
- Margin 25% is assumed and is the lowest of the four product lines: this line carries the heaviest purchased-intangible amortisation and the Splunk cost base. The terminal 28% assumes that integration cost is absorbed, not that it disappears.
- Every vertical margin here is assumed. Cisco discloses gross margin by geography (Americas 64.5%, EMEA 70.1%, APJC 67.3% in the basis quarter) and product-versus-services gross margin, and never operating profit, capex or headcount by product category.
- The two July quarters are derived, not printed: FY2024 Q4 and FY2025 Q4 are the fiscal-year column of the 10-K less the nine-month column of that year's Q3 10-Q, and both reconcile to the quarterly totals Cisco printed later, so they carry estimated: true.
- Capex intensity is the consolidated rate applied to every line: FY2026 property and equipment $1,410M on $63,325M of revenue is 2.2%, and Cisco publishes no capex by product category to split it with.