CSCO · Forward model · Networking
What has to happen in Networking
Model as of
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Networking
Switching, routing, wireless and servers: $9,791M in the basis quarter, 56.8% of revenue and all of the growth. Q4 +28% year over year and FY2026 +22% after two down years, on networking product orders +40% and an eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit order growth. The hyperscaler AI infrastructure business lands here — about $4bn of FY2026 revenue against $9.3bn of FY2026 orders, guided to $7.5bn in FY2027. Cisco publishes no units, ports or capacity for this line, so sequential growth on the reported category is the only honest driver.
Latest: $13.38B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $8.82B |
| 2024Q2 | $7.08B |
| 2024Q3 | $6.52B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.80B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.75B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.85B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.63B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.77B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.29B |
| 2026Q3 | $8.81B |
| 2026Q4 | $9.79B |
| 2027Q1E | $10.33B |
| 2027Q2E | $10.61B |
| 2027Q3E | $10.80B |
| 2027Q4E | $10.95B |
| 2028Q1E | $11.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $11.24B |
| 2028Q3E | $11.38B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.52B |
| 2029Q1E | $11.67B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.81B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.96B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.11B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.26B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.42B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.57B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.73B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.89B |
| 2031Q2E | $13.05B |
| 2031Q3E | $13.21B |
| 2031Q4E | $13.38B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- AI infrastructure is modelled inside this line and never as its own vertical. Cisco discloses AI revenue and AI orders once a year, so a quarterly AI series would be an invented sub-line that double-counts against Networking.
- The order book runs above recognised revenue: $9.3bn of FY2026 AI orders against about $4bn of AI revenue, and product RPO of $23,436M, +9%. Orders are visibility, not revenue, so they inform the growth path rather than set it.
- Opening 5.5% sequential puts FY2027 networking near $42.7bn, +23% on FY2026's $34,668M, which is the growth the consolidated $72.2-73.4bn guide needs given a flat Services line and a 2% Security year.
- Margin 37% is assumed: non-GAAP product gross margin less consolidated operating expense, with the terminal at 34% because the hardware mix that took Q4 non-GAAP gross margin from 68.4% to 66.3% is treated as permanent.
- Every vertical margin here is assumed. Cisco discloses gross margin by geography (Americas 64.5%, EMEA 70.1%, APJC 67.3% in the basis quarter) and product-versus-services gross margin, and never operating profit, capex or headcount by product category.
- The two July quarters are derived, not printed: FY2024 Q4 and FY2025 Q4 are the fiscal-year column of the 10-K less the nine-month column of that year's Q3 10-Q, and both reconcile to the quarterly totals Cisco printed later, so they carry estimated: true.
- Capex intensity is the consolidated rate applied to every line: FY2026 property and equipment $1,410M on $63,325M of revenue is 2.2%, and Cisco publishes no capex by product category to split it with.