BMNR · Forward model · Alchemy of 5% case

The Alchemy of 5% case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

READ THE SCENARIO SPREAD AS A WARNING, NOT AS COMFORT. This is a digital-asset treasury company, so 93.7% of the base case's $26.92 is the ETH mark sitting in net cash, and net cash is the one input the scenarios cannot move. Bear to Bull spans $26.27 to $27.89 - six percent - while the thing that actually decides the answer sits outside that range entirely: hold everything else and put ETH at $2,000 and fair value is $21.95; put it at $3,000 and it is $31.73. A narrow spread here means the model is honest about what it can compute, not that the stock is safe. WHAT NET CASH CONTAINS. $15.22bn: the $15.6bn of crypto, cash and marketable securities and 'moonshot' stakes the company disclosed as of 30 August 2026, less the $350m stated amount of the 9.50% Series A Perpetual Preferred (3.5m shares at $100), less $30.1m of total liabilities from the 31 May 2026 balance sheet. There is no debt of any kind. Deducting the preferred at stated amount is deliberately conservative - its perpetual $33.25m coupon discounted at 15% is worth $222m, and the shares quoted around $86 in mid-July, roughly $301m. THE DOUBLE-COUNT QUESTION, STATED OPENLY. The model values the ETH at its mark AND the staking rewards it earns. A direct holder of ETH could stake it too, so this only adds value if the spot price does not already capitalise the holder's own yield. The position taken here is that BitMine's equity is worth ETH plus yield MINUS the costs a direct holder never pays - roughly $150m a year of overhead and a $33m preferred coupon, both of which are in the projection. Disagree with that and the answer is nearer $25 than $27. It is written down so it can be argued with rather than swallowed. FISCAL LABELS ARE FISCAL. The year ends 31 AUGUST, so 2026 Q1 ended 30 November 2025 and the basis quarter 2026 Q3 ended 31 May 2026. And on 9 July 2026 the board moved the year end to 31 December after the year ending 31 August 2026, with a four-month transition period on Form 10-KT, so projected quarter two stands in for September-December 2026 and labels from 2027 Q1 are calendar quarters. WHAT IS REPORTED AND WHAT IS NOT. Every quarterly figure in both verticals is a reported number: the fiscal 2026 Q1 and Q2 10-Qs each print the staking line and the individual legacy lines, and the Q3 10-Q prints all five disaggregated lines on the face of the income statement. They reconcile to consolidated revenue exactly in all seven quarters - $2,293, $11,041 and $46,535 thousand for the three fiscal 2026 quarters. Nothing is apportioned and nothing is estimated. The one thing that is NOT disclosed is the split of the basis quarter's $5,726 thousand cost of sales between the two lines; the 89.7% staking margin is derived from the Q1 and Q2 splits (staking cost was 3.0% of staking revenue in both) adjusted upward for the Q3 MD&A's statement that the cost ratio rose after the Pier Two acquisition, and the legacy line's -33.3% margin is measured directly from the Q2 disaggregation. NO SEASONALITY, AND THAT IS A FINDING. Ethereum pays rewards every 6.4-minute epoch with no calendar mechanism, and the staking line has only three non-zero quarters, so no centred four-quarter moving average can be formed. The legacy line has seven quarters but yields at most one moving-average ratio per quarter index and none for Q2, so signal cannot be separated from spread; its visible shape is contract timing - a machine lease that expired 31 December 2025 and a consulting contract that ran to 15 May 2026 - not a season. Neither vertical carries factors. TERMINAL VALUE. The present value of the terminal is 51.8% of the $1.02bn operating enterprise value but only 3.3% of fair value, because net cash dwarfs it. Exit multiple from 4x to 16x moves fair value $26.48 to $27.80. EXCHANGE. Common stock and the BMNP preferred both trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The common uplisted from the NYSE American on 9 April 2026; the 8-A12B of 10 June 2026 registers the preferred, not the common.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.