AVGO · Forward model · Non-AI Semiconductors · Bear case
What has to happen in Non-AI Semiconductors
Model as of
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Non-AI Semiconductors
Basis quarter$4.14B
Final quarter$3.08B
Implied CAGR−6%
Final revenue mix15%
Broadband, enterprise storage, non-AI enterprise networking, wireless and industrial: the businesses Broadcom was built on. Barely a fifth of revenue now, coming off a long downcycle, and the part of the company that behaves like a semiconductor company.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$4.63B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.12B
Reported
2026 Q2
$4.21B
Reported
2026 Q3
$4.14B
Reported
Broadband access and set-topServer storage connectivityEnterprise networking (non-AI switching and routing)Wireless (RF filters and connectivity for handsets)Industrial and other
Sequential growth
+3.9%/qtr
decaying toward +1.2%
+3.9% into Q4, which is the ~$4.3B management forecast against the $4,139M reconciling remainder for Q3.
Non-AI Semiconductors
Latest: $3.08B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $3.96B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.97B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.63B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.21B |
| 2026Q3 | $4.14B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.19B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.21B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.21B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.19B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.15B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.04B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.97B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.90B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.83B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.75B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.68B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.60B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.52B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.45B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.37B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.30B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.23B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.15B |
| 2031Q3E | $3.08B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Carried on a plain growth rate, and that is the honest choice here rather than a fallback. Five end-markets on five different cycles roll up into something that tracks the semiconductor cycle and nothing else; there is no single operating unit underneath worth pretending to model, and Broadcom discloses none.
- This line is a remainder, not a reported number: Semiconductor Solutions less the AI revenue stated in the CEO's quote. It is exact in the three quarters where the AI figure is given in dollars and derived in the two where only a growth rate was given, which is why 2025 Q2 and 2025 Q4 carry an estimated flag.
- 6.9% in the first projected quarter is the sequential step to the roughly $4.5B management pointed at for 2026 Q3 — a cyclical recovery, with the fiscal third quarter also being when the wireless content ramp begins. Bookings above $6B against $4.2B shipped in the basis quarter is the evidence that the recovery is real rather than seasonal.
- Terminal growth of 1.25% a quarter, about 5% a year, is deliberately unexciting. This is a mature analogue and connectivity portfolio with high share in markets that grow with units shipped; the recovery is a return to trend, not a new one.
- Margin is held flat at 55%, well below AI and well below software. Wireless in particular carries real bill-of-materials cost and a customer with unusual bargaining power, and there is no glide here because there is no story for why the mix improves.
- The understated risk: the 2025 Q4 spike to $4.6B is the seasonal handset ramp, and it is the same customer that now buys custom silicon from the AI line. Concentration in this model is not confined to the vertical that advertises it.