AFRM · Forward model · Levchin case
The Levchin case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Affirm reports five revenue lines on the face of every shareholder letter - merchant network, card network, interest income, gain on sales of loans, servicing income - and this model carries all five exactly as filed for seven quarters, from FQ2'25 (December 2024) to FQ4'26 (June 2026). Nothing is apportioned and no line is invented, so no quarter is flagged estimated. Quarter labels are FISCAL: '2026 Q4' is the quarter ended 30 June 2026, because Affirm's year ends 30 June. The FQ4'26 lines sum to $1,165,961K against $1,165,960K of reported total revenue - a $1K rounding difference and nothing else. Because this is a fiscal fourth quarter there is a full year to check against, and it checks: the four FY2026 quarters sum to merchant $1,149,932K + card $293,990K + interest $2,047,484K + gain on sale $596,553K + servicing $173,124K = $4,261,083K against $4,261,082K of reported FY2026 revenue, again $1K of rounding. Every line is disclosed; nothing here is derived. What IS assumed is the cost side. Affirm publishes no segment economics at all, so the split of the four transaction-cost lines across the five revenue lines is ours: funding costs and the provision for credit losses are charged entirely to interest income, the loss on loan purchase commitment entirely to merchant network (it arises on the 0% promotional loans merchants pay for), and processing and servicing is split across the four remaining lines. THOSE FIVE MARGINS ARE STILL CALIBRATED TO FQ3'26 AND THIS ROLL-FORWARD DELIBERATELY DID NOT RE-CUT THEM. At FQ4'26 revenue mix they produce $569.4M of RLTC against the $589.1M Affirm reported, a 3.3% shortfall, and 21% corporate overhead then produces a 27.8% adjusted operating margin against the 30.3% reported. The model is therefore conservative on margin by about 2.5 points at the basis. It was left that way on purpose: recalibrating the five to sum to $589M, on the same allocation rule, pushes card network to 49-54% and gain on sale to 92-93%, at or above their own terminal margins of 48% and 92% - so the glide would run backwards. That cannot be fixed without moving terminal margins, which is a re-thesis rather than a roll-forward. It is the first thing the next revision has to settle. Two known distortions, stated rather than tuned away. First, this spec carries no seasonality array even though the engine supports one (four factors per vertical, internal/model/spec.go), so merchant network and gain on sale grow at a smooth sequential rate. That is why the model cannot be solved onto the FQ1'27 revenue guide of $1,190-1,220M: June is Affirm's seasonal peak and September steps down from it, so any growth rate that lands on the September guide is negative and destroys the path. Growth here is therefore calibrated on the FY2027 guide instead, and the near-quarter residual is reported in each vertical. Second, corporate overhead is a fixed share of revenue here, so the operating leverage Affirm promises - the same RLTC yield carrying a lower opex ratio - has to be carried in each vertical's terminal margin instead of in a falling overhead line. One sourcing limitation, stated rather than worked around: the FQ4'26 shareholder letter is furnished to the SEC as an image-only HTML exhibit, and the IR PDF's extractable text drops several letters, so no new verbatim sentence could be taken from it beyond the management quotes captured in content/earnings/AFRM/2026-q4.md. Two source items therefore still quote the FQ3'26 and FQ2'26 letters where the FQ4'26 print has superseded the figures - funding capacity is now $30.0B against the $28.0B in the quoted sentence, and Affirm Card grew 124% with cardholders up 125% against the 159%/121% in the quoted one. The quotes are accurate as of their own dates; the current figures are in the vertical notes.
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Affirm's own medium-term framework taken at face value: 25%+ GMV growth to $100B a year, revenue at 7.5-8.5% of it, RLTC at 3.75-4.0%, and a 30-35% adjusted operating margin. This case reaches the framework early rather than differently - $100B of annual GMV lands around 2029 instead of 2030, and margins settle at the top of the published band. What it does NOT reach is the version of the story where the Card and the adjacent verticals make Affirm something other than a lender: even here, interest income plus gain on sale is still more than half of terminal revenue, and the merchant fee rate still erodes. The framework is a bigger Affirm, not a different one - and that gap, not the growth rate, is what the multiple is arguing about. Which is why this case carries a 6x exit rather than the bull case's 6.5x: the company's own numbers, delivered in full, still describe a lender.
Latest: $3.46B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $866M |
| 2025Q3 | $783M |
| 2025Q4 | $876M |
| 2026Q1 | $933M |
| 2026Q2 | $1.12B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.04B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.17B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.25B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.34B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.44B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.65B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.76B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.88B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.01B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.14B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.29B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.43B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.59B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.79B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.89B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.00B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.11B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.22B |
| 2031Q3E | $3.34B |
| 2031Q4E | $3.46B |
What drives each segment
Merchant network revenue
Units × priceThe fee merchants pay Affirm for the sale, and the closest thing this company has to a pure take rate on volume. It is highest on 0% promotional and Pay-in-X plans, where the merchant is buying the conversion rather than the consumer buying the credit, so this line rises and falls with how much of the marketplace is merchant-funded rather than with GMV alone.
Latest: $730M (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $245M |
| 2025Q3 | $214M |
| 2025Q4 | $239M |
| 2026Q1 | $251M |
| 2026Q2 | $328M |
| 2026Q3 | $268M |
| 2026Q4 | $302M |
| 2027Q1E | $323M |
| 2027Q2E | $345M |
| 2027Q3E | $369M |
| 2027Q4E | $394M |
| 2028Q1E | $422M |
| 2028Q2E | $452M |
| 2028Q3E | $484M |
| 2028Q4E | $518M |
| 2029Q1E | $556M |
| 2029Q2E | $596M |
| 2029Q3E | $639M |
| 2029Q4E | $685M |
| 2030Q1E | $692M |
| 2030Q2E | $697M |
| 2030Q3E | $702M |
| 2030Q4E | $707M |
| 2031Q1E | $713M |
| 2031Q2E | $718M |
| 2031Q3E | $724M |
| 2031Q4E | $730M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The unit here is one million dollars of GMV, so this line is Affirm's volume multiplied by the merchant fee it earns per million. Both halves are disclosed: GMV every quarter in the headline - $14,057M in FQ4'26 - and the fee derived by division.
- THE FEE RATE BROKE ITS BAND THIS QUARTER. It has run 2.30% to 2.49% across the six quarters to March; FQ4'26 came in at 2.151%, below the bottom of that range and 6.5% below the 2.30% of the June quarter a year ago. The model still drifts the rate down 0.75% a quarter, which is a 3.0% annual decline - about half the erosion the print just delivered. That assumption has been left alone deliberately: one quarter carrying a large enterprise promotional event is not a trend, and Affirm says that event does not repeat in FQ1'27. If the rate prints below 2.2% again in September, this drift is wrong and the merchant line has to be re-cut on a steeper one.
- The company's own explanation is mix, and it is in the letter: network revenue grew 26% against 36% GMV growth, in part due to a mix shift towards direct-to-consumer GMV, which carries lower network revenue as a percentage of GMV. D2C GMV grew 49% to $4.7B and was driven entirely by the Affirm Card. That is the cannibalisation this line was always going to face, arriving on schedule.
- GMV grows 6.5% a quarter here, unchanged. That is a 28.6% annual run rate against the more-than-$64B FY2027 guide, which is 27.5% growth on the $50.2B just delivered. It is deliberately above the guide and below the 36-37% Affirm actually delivered in FQ4'26 and in FY2026 as a whole.
- The ceiling of $30B of GMV a quarter - $120B a year - is what stops a 6.5% compound running to infinity. Rolling the basis forward from $11.6B to $14.1B pulls that ceiling forward by roughly two quarters: it now binds inside the projected fourth year rather than at the end of it, which is a mechanical consequence of a bigger starting quarter and not a change of view. The ceiling was not moved to hide it. Affirm now reports $30.0B of committed funding capacity against a $20.2B platform portfolio, so a $120B annual ceiling still assumes that capacity roughly doubles again.
- This is the same GMV that drives the gain-on-sale line, and the two carry it separately: moving volume here without moving it there breaks the arithmetic that ties both to one company.
Card network revenue
Subscribers × ARPUInterchange and virtual-card economics on the direct-to-consumer surface: the Affirm Card in the wallet and at the terminal, plus the virtual cards that carry wallet-partner volume. This is the engine Affirm's own framework leans on hardest - more than ten percentage points of annual growth from D2C - and it is the one line where the driver is a person rather than a purchase.
Latest: $351M (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $58M |
| 2025Q3 | $59M |
| 2025Q4 | $67M |
| 2026Q1 | $69M |
| 2026Q2 | $73M |
| 2026Q3 | $66M |
| 2026Q4 | $85M |
| 2027Q1E | $96M |
| 2027Q2E | $106M |
| 2027Q3E | $117M |
| 2027Q4E | $128M |
| 2028Q1E | $140M |
| 2028Q2E | $152M |
| 2028Q3E | $164M |
| 2028Q4E | $176M |
| 2029Q1E | $189M |
| 2029Q2E | $202M |
| 2029Q3E | $215M |
| 2029Q4E | $228M |
| 2030Q1E | $242M |
| 2030Q2E | $257M |
| 2030Q3E | $271M |
| 2030Q4E | $287M |
| 2031Q1E | $302M |
| 2031Q2E | $318M |
| 2031Q3E | $334M |
| 2031Q4E | $351M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled as active cardholders times revenue per cardholder because those are the disclosed numbers that move this line: 5.2 million active cardholders and $2.8B of Card GMV in FQ4'26, Card GMV up 124% and cardholders up 125% year over year.
- The $5.46 a month is derived, not disclosed, and it is doing more work than a per-cardholder figure should. Card network revenue also carries virtual-card economics on wallet-partner volume that no cardholder generates, so read this as revenue per cardholder-equivalent rather than as what a cardholder is worth.
- The attach frame held up. The model glided attach from 16.4% at 4.5% of the remaining gap a quarter, which implied 18.1% for June; Affirm reported 5.2 million cardholders against 27.8 million active consumers, which is 18.7%, and the letter rounds it to 19%. That is the one driver in this model the print confirmed rather than argued with, so the glide and the 55% ceiling are unchanged.
- REVENUE PER CARDHOLDER WENT THE WRONG WAY FOR THE ASSUMPTION. The model drifts it down 0.5% a quarter and expected $5.00; the quarter delivered $5.46, up 8.5%. The level is moved to the reported one because that is what a roll-forward does, but the -0.5% drift is left in place: Card 0% APR GMV is still growing faster than the Card mix and 0% volume earns a merchant fee rather than interchange, so the direction of the assumption is still defensible even though two of the last two quarters have gone against it.
- The consumer base is growing far faster than the 2% a quarter this model assumes - active consumers went 26.8M to 27.8M in one quarter, 3.7% sequentially and 21% year over year, against an assumption of roughly 8% a year. That gap widened this quarter and it suppresses the whole card line, because attach is applied to a base that grows too slowly here. Left alone; it is the second thing the next revision should settle.
Interest income
Capacity × utilisation × priceThe largest line in the company and the one that is genuinely supply-gated: Affirm can only earn interest on loans it funds and keeps. Loans held for investment were $8.57B at 31 March 2026 against $28.0B of committed funding capacity, so the constraint on this line is not demand for credit but how much of it Affirm chooses - and is able - to hold.
Latest: $1.82B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $409M |
| 2025Q3 | $403M |
| 2025Q4 | $419M |
| 2026Q1 | $454M |
| 2026Q2 | $494M |
| 2026Q3 | $532M |
| 2026Q4 | $567M |
| 2027Q1E | $608M |
| 2027Q2E | $651M |
| 2027Q3E | $695M |
| 2027Q4E | $742M |
| 2028Q1E | $790M |
| 2028Q2E | $841M |
| 2028Q3E | $894M |
| 2028Q4E | $948M |
| 2029Q1E | $1.01B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.07B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.13B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.19B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.26B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.33B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.64B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.73B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.82B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capacity here is the loan book itself: $9,560,742K of loans held for investment at 30 June 2026, straight off the balance sheet, up from $8,573M in March and $7,026M a year ago. Utilisation is the share of that book that actually carries a rate, because the 0% promotional loans sitting in it earn a merchant fee instead.
- The $70,635 of quarterly revenue per $1M of interest-bearing balance is a 7.1% quarterly yield, near 28% annualised. That looks extreme until you remember these are five-month loans with APRs up to 36% and that interest income here includes the accretion of discounts on retained paper.
- THE IMPLIED YIELD FELL 4.5% SEQUENTIALLY AGAINST AN ASSUMED DRIFT OF -0.5%. Most of that is arithmetic rather than pricing: the balance is a period-end number and the flow is a quarter, so a book that grew 11.5% in three months depresses the yield measured against its closing balance. Some of it is real - average cost of funds fell 103 bp to 5.8% and Affirm competes cheaper funding into consumer APR. The -0.5% drift is left where it is rather than steepened to fit one quarter of a fast-growing book, and it is the third thing the next revision has to settle.
- The book grows $600M in the first projected quarter and the addition itself grows 3% a quarter. That is now conservative: loans held for investment added $988M in FQ4'26 alone and averaged $634M a quarter across FY2026. The number was not raised - the model's whole stance on this line is that the constraint is how much paper Affirm chooses to hold, not how much it could - but a $600M quarterly add against a $634M realised average is a documented understatement, not an oversight.
- Utilisation stays at 84%. It is not disclosed and never has been; the product mix that stands behind it moved the right way, with interest-bearing loans now 72% of GMV against roughly 71%, and the CFO told the call the FY2027 mix should 'skew slightly higher to interest-bearing'. The 88% target is unchanged.
- This is the line that carries the credit cycle. The provision for credit losses ($223.2M in the quarter) and funding costs ($118.5M) are both charged here in full, which is why its margin sits near 42% rather than near the 90% a gross interest line would show, and why a bear case has to move this margin more than any other. Allowance to loans held for investment is 5.9% against 5.6% a year ago; 30+ delinquencies excluding Peloton and Pay-in-X are 2.5%, 19 bp worse year over year but 26 bp better sequentially.
Gain on sales of loans
Units × priceWhat Affirm books when it sells originated paper to forward-flow buyers and securitisation trusts instead of holding it. It is the release valve on the balance sheet: every loan sold is capital freed to originate again, and the price it fetches is the market's live opinion of Affirm's underwriting.
Latest: $430M (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $125M |
| 2025Q3 | $76M |
| 2025Q4 | $117M |
| 2026Q1 | $119M |
| 2026Q2 | $185M |
| 2026Q3 | $127M |
| 2026Q4 | $165M |
| 2027Q1E | $178M |
| 2027Q2E | $191M |
| 2027Q3E | $205M |
| 2027Q4E | $221M |
| 2028Q1E | $238M |
| 2028Q2E | $256M |
| 2028Q3E | $275M |
| 2028Q4E | $296M |
| 2029Q1E | $318M |
| 2029Q2E | $342M |
| 2029Q3E | $368M |
| 2029Q4E | $396M |
| 2030Q1E | $401M |
| 2030Q2E | $405M |
| 2030Q3E | $409M |
| 2030Q4E | $413M |
| 2031Q1E | $417M |
| 2031Q2E | $421M |
| 2031Q3E | $426M |
| 2031Q4E | $430M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Affirm does not disclose how much paper it sells in a quarter or at what price, so this line is modelled on the denominator it does disclose: GMV. The unit is one million dollars of volume, and the $11,744 it earns per million is a derived rate, not a published one.
- That rate has now run between $8,814 and $13,422 per $1M of GMV across seven reported quarters with no trend, which is why the drift is still zero. FQ4'26 landed at 1.174%, inside the range and above the 1.10% of March. The letter attributes the increase to a 26% growth in loans sold plus 29 bp of more favourable loan sale pricing.
- THE LUMPINESS IS NOW ON THE RECORD AND IT IS STRUCTURAL. On the call, management said that quarters carrying a non-consolidated ABS deal show 'a bit more gain on sale revenue', that Affirm did two such deals in FY2026 - one of them in FQ4 - and that it has stopped publishing the schedule for FY2027. So this line is not merely seasonal, it is deal-timed, and a smooth quarterly rate applied to GMV will be wrong every single quarter in a direction nobody outside the company can predict. The zero drift is the honest response to that, not a forecast.
- GMV growth and the ceiling here are identical to the merchant network line by construction, because it is the same volume. If you move one, move the other, or the model is describing two different companies.
- The margin near 91% is the highest in the model and the most fragile assumption in it: the credit cost of sold loans sits with the buyer, so almost nothing lands against this revenue except a share of processing. A forward-flow market that reprices does not lower this margin, it removes the revenue.
- This is the line that goes first in a funding shock. In 2022 the securitisation market closed to consumer paper for months, and a company with $30.0B of committed capacity still needs a bid for what it originates beyond what it can hold.
Servicing income
Growth pathThe fee Affirm earns for collecting on loans other people own. It is the annuity attached to the sold book - small, boringly consistent, and the one line that keeps paying after Affirm has stopped taking the credit risk.
Latest: $136M (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $29M |
| 2025Q3 | $32M |
| 2025Q4 | $34M |
| 2026Q1 | $40M |
| 2026Q2 | $43M |
| 2026Q3 | $45M |
| 2026Q4 | $46M |
| 2027Q1E | $49M |
| 2027Q2E | $52M |
| 2027Q3E | $55M |
| 2027Q4E | $58M |
| 2028Q1E | $61M |
| 2028Q2E | $65M |
| 2028Q3E | $69M |
| 2028Q4E | $72M |
| 2029Q1E | $76M |
| 2029Q2E | $81M |
| 2029Q3E | $85M |
| 2029Q4E | $90M |
| 2030Q1E | $94M |
| 2030Q2E | $100M |
| 2030Q3E | $105M |
| 2030Q4E | $111M |
| 2031Q1E | $116M |
| 2031Q2E | $123M |
| 2031Q3E | $129M |
| 2031Q4E | $136M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the one line in the model with no driver behind it, and that is the honest answer rather than a lazy one: the thing that decides servicing income is the balance of third-party-owned loans Affirm services, and Affirm does not publish that balance quarterly. It does now disclose the platform portfolio - $20.2B against $15.1B a year ago - and says servicing income stayed at approximately 2% of the average off-balance-sheet portfolio, which is the closest thing to a rate this line has ever had.
- The growth rate is cut from 6.5% to 5.0% a quarter, decaying toward 4%. It is the only growth rate in this roll-forward that moved. The last three sequential prints were 7.7%, 4.4% and 3.2%; 5.0% is roughly their average and still above the two most recent. Year over year the line grew 36%, so this is a deceleration the quarters themselves are already showing rather than a call on the future.
- At 4.0% of revenue this is the smallest line in the model, and a wrong growth rate here changes the fair value by cents. It earns its place because leaving it out would break the reconciliation to reported total revenue.
- The margin near 55% is a guess constrained by arithmetic. It was set so the five lines together summed to the $498M of RLTC Affirm reported for FQ3'26; against the $589M reported for FQ4'26 the five now sum to $569M, and this line's share of that gap has not been re-cut. See the model note.
- The direction of risk is upward. Every quarter Affirm sells more paper than it holds, the serviced book that pays this fee gets larger - which is why a bear case for gain on sale is not automatically a bear case here.
Where each case comes from
Levchin case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Levchin column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The growth the framework is indexed to
- Aug 27, 2026 We once again drove exceptionally strong and profitable growth across the entire P&L, with RLTC growing a standout 39%. This is our 11th consecutive quarter of 30% or faster GMV growth. We have been consistently profitable for the past 12 months.
- Aug 27, 2026 With GMV crossing the $50B mark this fiscal year, Affirm's growth can no longer be explained away by the novelty of our product, and our steady credit outcomes demonstrate our commitment to responsible growth with robust unit economics.
- Aug 27, 2026 Here's to a fantastic fiscal '27 and on to $100 billion GMV!
What the funding side has to deliver
- May 7, 2026 We estimate this capacity can support more than $65.0 billion in annual GMV based upon our weighted-average loan duration of approximately 5 months at the end of FQ3'26.
- Aug 27, 2026 just with the execution that we have seen within the debt capital markets, we brought on a capital base that gives us a profile and a funding cost that we think should carry on through FY 2027.
The direct-to-consumer engine
- Feb 5, 2026 Affirm Card also had a banner quarter, growing GMV 159%, and active cardholders rose 121%.
- Feb 5, 2026 Card 0% APR GMV increased 190% year over year, now representing almost 20% of the total Card GMV mix, a 4 percentage point increase sequentially, a nearly threefold increase in mix over two years.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $8.15B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $13.13B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $4.76B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 6.0x |
| Terminal value | $78.80B |
| Discounted at 12.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $44.71B |
| Enterprise value | $52.86B |
| Net cash | $1.47B |
| Equity value | $54.33B |
| Shares | 0.35B |
| Fair value per share | $155.36 |
| Against the deployed price of $72.35, as of | +115% |
5x terminal revenue against roughly 6.3x trailing at $77.33 today. A business still compounding near 20% with a 33% adjusted operating margin deserves a real multiple, but it is a levered consumer lender at the end of this horizon rather than a hypergrowth network, and paying today's multiple for that is an argument this model does not make. The 12% discount rate is deliberately above what a software business would carry: Affirm funds a loan book, and the cost of that funding is the risk.
Read the other way round: at $72.35 the market is paying 2.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Merchant network revenue | Card network revenue | Interest income | Gain on sales of loans | Servicing income | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q1E | $323M | $96M | $608M | $178M | $49M | $1.25B | +34% | $418M | $70M | $272M | +56 | $264M |
| 2027 Q2E | $345M | $106M | $651M | $191M | $52M | $1.34B | +20% | $454M | $73M | $298M | +42 | $281M |
| 2027 Q3E | $369M | $117M | $695M | $205M | $55M | $1.44B | +39% | $492M | $76M | $325M | +61 | $298M |
| 2027 Q4E | $394M | $128M | $742M | $221M | $58M | $1.54B | +32% | $532M | $80M | $353M | +55 | $315M |
| 2028 Q1E | $422M | $140M | $790M | $238M | $61M | $1.65B | +32% | $575M | $83M | $383M | +55 | $333M |
| 2028 Q2E | $452M | $152M | $841M | $256M | $65M | $1.76B | +31% | $619M | $87M | $415M | +55 | $350M |
| 2028 Q3E | $484M | $164M | $894M | $275M | $69M | $1.88B | +31% | $667M | $91M | $449M | +55 | $368M |
| 2028 Q4E | $518M | $176M | $948M | $296M | $72M | $2.01B | +30% | $717M | $96M | $484M | +54 | $386M |
| 2029 Q1E | $556M | $189M | $1.01B | $318M | $76M | $2.14B | +30% | $770M | $101M | $522M | +54 | $405M |
| 2029 Q2E | $596M | $202M | $1.07B | $342M | $81M | $2.29B | +29% | $826M | $106M | $562M | +54 | $423M |
| 2029 Q3E | $639M | $215M | $1.13B | $368M | $85M | $2.43B | +29% | $886M | $111M | $604M | +54 | $442M |
| 2029 Q4E | $685M | $228M | $1.19B | $396M | $90M | $2.59B | +29% | $949M | $117M | $649M | +54 | $462M |
| 2030 Q1E | $692M | $242M | $1.26B | $401M | $94M | $2.69B | +25% | $984M | $120M | $673M | +50 | $466M |
| 2030 Q2E | $697M | $257M | $1.33B | $405M | $100M | $2.79B | +22% | $1.02B | $124M | $698M | +47 | $469M |
| 2030 Q3E | $702M | $271M | $1.40B | $409M | $105M | $2.89B | +19% | $1.05B | $127M | $723M | +44 | $473M |
| 2030 Q4E | $707M | $287M | $1.48B | $413M | $111M | $3.00B | +16% | $1.09B | $131M | $749M | +41 | $476M |
| 2031 Q1E | $713M | $302M | $1.56B | $417M | $116M | $3.11B | +16% | $1.13B | $135M | $776M | +41 | $479M |
| 2031 Q2E | $718M | $318M | $1.64B | $421M | $123M | $3.22B | +16% | $1.17B | $139M | $804M | +40 | $483M |
| 2031 Q3E | $724M | $334M | $1.73B | $426M | $129M | $3.34B | +16% | $1.21B | $143M | $832M | +40 | $486M |
| 2031 Q4E | $730M | $351M | $1.82B | $430M | $136M | $3.46B | +16% | $1.25B | $148M | $861M | +40 | $489M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | $107.49 | First publication. Five reported revenue lines from FQ2'25 to FQ3'26, basis FQ3'26. Segment margins calibrated so they sum to the reported $498M of RLTC and 21% corporate overhead reproduces the reported 27.0% adjusted operating margin. Base fair value $107.49 against $77.33; bear $41.44, Levchin $153.50, bull $175.92. |
| 2026-08-31 | $108.92 | Roll-forward to FQ4'26, the quarter ended 30 June 2026, reported 27 August. Basis moves from FQ3'26 to FQ4'26 and the five filed revenue lines get a seventh quarter: merchant network $302.4M, card network $85.2M, interest income $567.3M, gain on sales of loans $165.1M, servicing income $46.1M. They sum to $1,165,961K against $1,165,960K reported, and because this is a fiscal fourth quarter the four quarters also sum to $4,261,083K against $4,261,082K of reported FY2026 revenue. All five disclosed; nothing estimated. Every guided line for the quarter printed above its high end, and this was the 11th consecutive quarter of 30%+ GMV growth after the May outlook had guided the streak to end. Drivers move to the reported levels: GMV $14,057M on both the merchant and gain-on-sale lines, cardholders 5.2M against 27.8M active consumers, loans held for investment $9,561M. Market inputs: 349,731,167 diluted shares from the release, price $77.49 from the close file, and net cash $1,473M on Affirm's own definition - cash and equivalents plus securities available for sale minus convertible senior notes - which reproduces the previous $1,352M from the March balance sheet exactly. Base fair value $108.92 against $107.49, on a share price that has barely moved. WHAT WAS DELIBERATELY LEFT ALONE, because the print argues with it and a roll-forward is not the place to settle it. First, the merchant fee rate: it fell to 2.151% from 2.310%, below a band that had held at 2.30-2.49% for six quarters, and the model still drifts it down only 0.75% a quarter. The letter says the cause is D2C mix, which is exactly the cannibalisation this line was built to fear. Second, the five segment margins are still calibrated to FQ3'26 and now sum to $569M of RLTC against $589M reported, leaving the model 2.5 points light on adjusted operating margin at the basis; re-cutting them to $589M on the same allocation rule would push card network and gain on sale to or above their own terminal margins, so it cannot be done without moving terminal margins, which is out of scope here. Third, revenue per cardholder printed $5.46 against an assumed $5.00 and the -0.5% drift stays. Fourth, active consumers grew 3.7% in the quarter against an assumed 2%, and the loan book added $988M against an assumed $600M - both left where they were, both understatements now on the record. The only growth rate that moved is servicing, 6.5% to 5.0%, because its last three sequential prints were 7.7%, 4.4% and 3.2% and the published rate was above every one of them. GMV growth stays at 6.5% a quarter: it cannot be solved onto the FQ1'27 revenue guide because this spec carries no seasonality array and September steps down from Affirm's June peak, so any rate that lands on the near quarter is negative. Calibrated on the year instead, and it lands well: the first projected quarter is $1,239.9M against a $1,190-1,220M guide, 2.9% above the midpoint, and FY2027 comes out at $5,433M of revenue on $66.0B of GMV against a guide of more than $64B at about 8.5% of GMV, which is $5,440M - 0.1% below. The mechanical consequence to surface: with the basis quarter now $14.1B instead of $11.6B, the $30B quarterly GMV ceiling binds about two quarters earlier, from 2030 Q1. The ceiling was not moved to hide that. The next revision has to settle the cost allocation and the merchant fee drift, and should give this spec the seasonality array the engine already supports. |