ADBE · Forward model · Creative & Marketing Professionals · Bear case
What has to happen in Creative & Marketing Professionals
Model as of
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Creative & Marketing Professionals
The larger of the two customer groups Adobe discloses and 68.6% of revenue in the basis quarter: Creative Cloud flagship apps - Photoshop, Lightroom, Illustrator, Premiere - together with the entire former Digital Experience stack of Experience Platform, Analytics, Real-Time CDP, Experience Manager, Marketo and GenStudio, plus Semrush from 28 April 2026. Revenue is subscription recognised ratably, so a quarter is set by the contracted base rather than by that quarter's selling, and the line has grown between 2.0% and 3.4% sequentially for ten straight quarters without a single down quarter. The driver is growth rather than subscribers times price because Adobe publishes this line's revenue and nothing underneath it: no subscriber count, no ARPU, and no ARR by customer group.
Latest: $5.73B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.55B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.64B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.71B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.84B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.92B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.02B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.12B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.25B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.39B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.54B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.61B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.75B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.82B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.89B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.95B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.07B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.19B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.25B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.30B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.36B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.41B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.47B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.52B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.57B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.62B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.68B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.73B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Ten contiguous quarters. Seven are read straight off a filed revenue-disaggregation table in a 10-Q or the 10-K; three are marked estimated because they are arithmetic on two filed figures - 2024 Q1 is the six months ended 31 May 2024 less the three months ended 31 May 2024, and 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 are each a 10-K full year less the matching nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q.
- Both derived years close exactly against the 10-K: 3,550 + 3,643 + 3,715 + 3,841 = 14,749 for fiscal 2024 and 3,922 + 4,019 + 4,117 + 4,245 = 16,303 for fiscal 2025, which are the figures Adobe reports for those years.
- This is not a segment. Adobe combined Digital Media, Digital Experience and Publishing and Advertising into one reportable segment in fiscal 2026 Q1 and recast prior periods, so there is no segment revenue or segment profit split left to model. What survives is the customer-group revenue disaggregation in Note 2, and that is exactly what this vertical carries.
- Sequential growth of 1.65% lands fiscal 2026 Q3 at $4,612m against guidance of $4.61bn to $4.64bn, and the fiscal year at $18,224m against guidance of $18.21bn to $18.27bn. The basis quarter itself grew 3.37% sequentially, so the model is carrying management's guided deceleration rather than the trailing rate.
- Adobe warns the split is not perfectly clean: revenue attributable to certain product entitlements may be recognised in either customer group, so a shift in how a bundled entitlement is booked would move revenue between this line and Business Professionals & Consumers without changing the total.