ADBE · Forward model · Business Professionals & Consumers · Bear case
What has to happen in Business Professionals & Consumers
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Business Professionals & Consumers
Acrobat, Acrobat AI Assistant, Acrobat Studio and Adobe Express: 28.0% of revenue in the basis quarter and the faster-growing of the two disclosed groups, up 16% year over year for six straight quarters. The strategic argument is reach, since Acrobat Reader is freemium and the funnel is measured in billions of users, and the monetisation argument is that AI assistants convert document consumption into a subscription. Adobe attributes the growth to one product, Acrobat. As with the other customer group, revenue is published and the seat base behind it is not, so the driver is a sequential growth rate calibrated to guidance rather than a subscriber count Adobe has never disclosed.
Latest: $2.42B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.34B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.44B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.50B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.53B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.59B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.72B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.78B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.85B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.89B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.92B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.96B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.99B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.02B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.08B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.11B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.16B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.19B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.21B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.24B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.27B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.29B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.34B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.37B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.39B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.42B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Ten contiguous quarters on the same disclosure basis as the other customer group, with the same three estimated quarters derived the same way and closed by the same fiscal-year sums: 1,339 + 1,389 + 1,437 + 1,497 = 5,662 for fiscal 2024 and 1,534 + 1,595 + 1,648 + 1,718 = 6,495 for fiscal 2025, both equal to the 10-K.
- Adobe's own fiscal 2026 guidance for this line is not internally consistent quarter to quarter: the third-quarter range implies a 1.46% sequential step and the full-year range then implies about 3.5% in the fourth. No mechanism is given for the step-up, so the model smooths it to 1.90%, which lands Q3 at $1,888m inside the guided $1.87-1.89bn and the year at $7,446m inside the guided $7.44-7.48bn.
- The margin carried here is the consolidated subscription gross margin of 90.9%, the same figure used for the other customer group, because Adobe publishes no cost of revenue by customer group at all. Splitting one disclosed margin into two undisclosed ones would be invention, so the model does not.
- No Acrobat or Express subscriber count or price is published, so nothing in this line separates seats from pricing. A 16% growth rate that is mostly price is a different business from one that is mostly seats, and the disclosure does not say which it is.