XYZ · Forward model · Financial Solutions
What has to happen in Financial Solutions
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Financial Solutions
Basis quarter$1.38B
Final quarter$2.65B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix25%
Lending and money movement: Cash App Borrow, Afterpay Post-Purchase, Square Loans, Instant Deposit, Square Card and interest income. The fastest line in the company at 43% gross-profit growth in Q2 2026, and the one whose real economics live in a loss line that sits outside cost of revenue.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.09B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.22B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.32B
Estimated
2026 Q2
$1.38B
Reported
Cash App BorrowAfterpay Post-Purchase and Pay MonthlySquare Loans originated by Square Financial ServicesInstant Deposit and Instant PaySquare Card and the Square credit cardInterest income and brokerage
Units
18900/qtr
growing +6.0% per quarter
Cash App consumer lending origination volume was $18.9B in Q2 2026, up 59% year over year. One unit is $1M originated.
Price per unit
$73142
drifting −2.0% per quarter
$1,382.4M of revenue on $18,900M originated is $73,142 per $1M. Q2 2025 was $82,735, Q1 2026 $75,113.
Financial Solutions
Latest: $2.65B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $875M |
| 2025Q2 | $985M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.09B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.22B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.32B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.38B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.44B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.63B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.70B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.78B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.86B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.95B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.05B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.15B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.26B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.37B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.49B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.62B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.74B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.70B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.68B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.67B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.65B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONALITY: none applied. Ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average on the six disclosed revenue quarters gives 0.995 for 2025 Q3 and 1.014 for 2025 Q4 and no observation for Q1 or Q2; on the six disclosed origination quarters it gives 0.944 and 1.137. Those two readings of the same line disagree by 12 points on Q4, each rests on a single window, and this line grew 40% over the same six quarters, so the ratios are measuring a ramp rather than a season. Left ASEASONAL. Derived from the actuals and origination history in this vertical.
- The 93.2% gross margin is BEFORE credit losses. Transaction, loan and consumer receivable losses of $585.5M in Q2 2026 - up 99% year over year - sit in operating expenses and are carried by the corporate overhead line. Read the two together or this vertical reads like a software business.
- The unit price blends Square's financial solutions revenue ($305M in Q2 2026) into a denominator that counts only Cash App consumer lending originations, because Square Loans origination volume is not disclosed quarterly. It is a reproducible blended rate, not a disclosed take rate, and it moves with Cash App / Square mix as well as with pricing.
- Originations grew 59% while lending product balances barely moved, from $6,836M at 31 December 2025 to $6,928M at 30 June 2026. That is Borrow's four-to-six week tenor turning over several times a quarter, which is exactly why originations rather than balance is the right volume.
- Block expects the loss line to behave: 'we continue to expect year-over-year growth in transaction, loan, and consumer receivable losses to moderate through the remainder of 2026'. Square Financial Services began taking high-yield seller deposits and processed its first Square acquiring transaction in June, which over time reduces the external capital this line needs.