XPEV · Forward model · Services and others · Bear case
What has to happen in Services and others
Model as of
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Services and others
A 75%-gross-margin line that nearly doubled year over year and carried the entire consolidated gross-margin improvement while vehicle margin fell. XPeng has never sized any component of it - technical R&D services for Volkswagen, parts, supercharging, financing and insurance, carbon credits - so it gets a growth driver and nothing more. Its level is hostage to Volkswagen milestone recognition, which the FY2025 auditor flagged as a critical audit matter.
Latest: $757M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $192M |
| 2024Q4 | $211M |
| 2025Q1 | $212M |
| 2025Q2 | $205M |
| 2025Q3 | $343M |
| 2025Q4 | $469M |
| 2026Q1 | $300M |
| 2026Q2 | $397M |
| 2026Q3E | $413M |
| 2026Q4E | $429M |
| 2027Q1E | $444M |
| 2027Q2E | $460M |
| 2027Q3E | $476M |
| 2027Q4E | $492M |
| 2028Q1E | $509M |
| 2028Q2E | $525M |
| 2028Q3E | $542M |
| 2028Q4E | $560M |
| 2029Q1E | $577M |
| 2029Q2E | $595M |
| 2029Q3E | $614M |
| 2029Q4E | $633M |
| 2030Q1E | $652M |
| 2030Q2E | $672M |
| 2030Q3E | $692M |
| 2030Q4E | $713M |
| 2031Q1E | $735M |
| 2031Q2E | $757M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL. Ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average on this line's own eight quarters gives 0.93, 0.73, 1.05 and 1.30, but there is exactly one window per quarter index, so the window-to-window spread is not one point wide - it is unmeasurable. The shape is also indistinguishable from what actually happened: a single level shift when Volkswagen technical R&D milestones started landing in 2025 Q3, taking the line from RMB1.39bn to RMB2.33bn and then RMB3.18bn. A ramp seen once is not a season, so no factors are carried.
- The company has never sized any component of this line. The only sub-disclosure is an H1 2026 recognition-timing split - RMB1.77bn at a point in time against RMB2.65bn over time - which is a revenue-recognition cut, not a product cut, and must not be used as a proxy for a product split.
- The basis quarter grew 32.6% sequentially, and the driver deliberately does not start there. Volkswagen technical R&D revenue is recognised on progress toward completion using the input method, which the FY2025 auditor flagged as a critical audit matter: the quarterly level depends on management's estimate of total contract costs and is lumpy by construction, so a strong quarter can be followed by a weak one with nothing changing underneath.
- The margin field is the disclosed SERVICES AND OTHERS GROSS MARGIN of 75.07%, not an EBITDA margin, for the same ASC 280 reason as the vehicle line. It is the highest in the disclosed history and the terminal 65% assumes the near-100%-margin milestone revenue fades into parts, charging and financing.
- Capex intensity of 1.0% is assumed, not disclosed. XPeng publishes no capex split; this line is largely people and intellectual property, and the consolidated capital programme is attributed to the vehicle line instead.