WMT · Forward model · Walmart U.S. · Bear case
What has to happen in Walmart U.S.
Model as of
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Walmart U.S.
Basis quarter$125.19B
Final quarter$140.71B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix67%
Roughly two thirds of the company. Revenue is comparable sales - transactions times ticket, with eCommerce contributing about 510bps of comp in 2027 Q2 - across a 4,611-unit estate that grows by a handful of stores a year. Walmart discloses no quarterly capacity or subscriber metric that mechanically generates the line, so the honest driver is deseasonalised growth anchored on disclosed comp sales and the company's own guidance.
Last four quarters
2026 Q3
$120.68B
Reported
2026 Q4
$129.22B
Reported
2027 Q1
$117.17B
Reported
2027 Q2
$125.19B
Reported
Supercenters, discount stores and Neighborhood MarketsStore-fulfilled pickup and delivery, marketplace and fulfilment servicesWalmart Connect advertising
Sequential growth
+0.9%/qtr
decaying toward +0.8%
Deseasonalised trend is 1.04%/qtr over eight quarters and 0.88% over four; 0.95% compounds to 3.9% a year.
Walmart U.S.
Latest: $140.71B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $103.90B |
| 2024Q2 | $110.85B |
| 2024Q3 | $109.42B |
| 2024Q4 | $117.64B |
| 2025Q1 | $108.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $115.35B |
| 2025Q3 | $114.88B |
| 2025Q4 | $123.52B |
| 2026Q1 | $112.16B |
| 2026Q2 | $120.91B |
| 2026Q3 | $120.68B |
| 2026Q4 | $129.22B |
| 2027Q1 | $117.17B |
| 2027Q2 | $125.19B |
| 2027Q3E | $125.21B |
| 2027Q4E | $135.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $119.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $128.40B |
| 2028Q3E | $128.37B |
| 2028Q4E | $138.67B |
| 2029Q1E | $122.34B |
| 2029Q2E | $131.53B |
| 2029Q3E | $131.47B |
| 2029Q4E | $141.98B |
| 2030Q1E | $125.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $134.61B |
| 2030Q3E | $134.52B |
| 2030Q4E | $145.25B |
| 2031Q1E | $128.09B |
| 2031Q2E | $137.66B |
| 2031Q3E | $137.55B |
| 2031Q4E | $148.50B |
| 2032Q1E | $130.94B |
| 2032Q2E | $140.71B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 7.15% starting EBITDA margin is derived, not disclosed: FY2026 segment operating income of $25,158M plus segment D&A of $9,390M over segment net sales of $482,975M. That numerator already contains this segment's share of membership and other income, which is why the membershipOther vertical is carried at a zero margin.
- The 158bps gross-margin gain at Walmart U.S. in 2027 Q2 is attributed by the company primarily to tariff refunds, and the release says those refunds are being reinvested into price in the second half. It is not extrapolated here; the margin starts at the FY2026 level and glides 45bps over five years.
- Operating expense deleveraged 72bps in 2027 Q2 on claims expense, depreciation and associate healthcare. Unlike the refunds that is a recurring cost line, and it is one reason the terminal margin assumption is deliberately slow.