VIST · Forward model · NGL and LPG · Bull case
What has to happen in NGL and LPG
Model as of
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NGL and LPG
Basis quarter$2M
Final quarter$3M
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix0%
One and a half tenths of a percent of revenue: 1.9 million dollars on 710 boe/d at 406 dollars a tonne in Q2 2026. It is a processing byproduct of the conventional assets and of gas treatment, reported on the income statement as revenues from LPG sales and in the operating tables as NGL. It is carried as its own line only because Vista reports it as one, and it will never move the valuation.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1M
Reported
2025 Q4
$2M
Reported
2026 Q1
$2M
Reported
2026 Q2
$2M
Reported
LPG and condensate sales
Sequential growth
+2.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
2% a quarter: a loose track of the oil programme on a byproduct line worth 0.15% of revenue.
NGL and LPG
Latest: $3M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1M |
| 2023Q2 | $1M |
| 2023Q3 | $733,000.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $968,000.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $201,000.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $276,000.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $1M |
| 2024Q4 | $1M |
| 2025Q1 | $2M |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $1M |
| 2025Q4 | $2M |
| 2026Q1 | $2M |
| 2026Q2 | $2M |
| 2026Q3E | $2M |
| 2026Q4E | $2M |
| 2027Q1E | $2M |
| 2027Q2E | $2M |
| 2027Q3E | $2M |
| 2027Q4E | $2M |
| 2028Q1E | $2M |
| 2028Q2E | $2M |
| 2028Q3E | $2M |
| 2028Q4E | $3M |
| 2029Q1E | $3M |
| 2029Q2E | $3M |
| 2029Q3E | $3M |
| 2029Q4E | $3M |
| 2030Q1E | $3M |
| 2030Q2E | $3M |
| 2030Q3E | $3M |
| 2030Q4E | $3M |
| 2031Q1E | $3M |
| 2031Q2E | $3M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than a capacity one, because no operational driver can be evidenced: volume swung between 139 and 784 boe/d across the last nine quarters with no relation to the drilling programme, and Vista sets no target for it.
- Two percent a quarter fading toward one is a loose track of the oil programme, not a company figure. On a line worth 0.15% of revenue, the difference between any two plausible rates is smaller than the rounding on the crude line.
- The conventional assets that feed most of this volume are operated by Tango under a transfer agreement, and Vista's entitlement was already renegotiated once, in September 2025, so the line is structurally in run-off even as the shale grows.