← UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
UnitedHealth reports four segments - UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx - plus a disclosed elimination line, and this model copies all five. Gross segment revenue less Optum eliminations less corporate eliminations equals consolidated revenue to the dollar in all thirteen quarters here (2023 Q2 - 2026 Q2), so the negative eliminations vertical is a reported line, not a plug; it is kept separate because UNH publishes no external-revenue split by segment and any allocation back into the four would be invented. Nothing below segment level is disclosed: no segment D&A, no segment capex, no PMPM. Vertical EBITDA margins are the 16 July 2026 guided full-year operating margin plus 0.68pp, the consolidated $4,400M of 2026 D&A allocated pro rata to gross segment revenue at the 2026 Q2 mix - which understates Optum Insight, the segment carrying most of the group's acquired intangibles. All capex is carried as one corporate programme because it is not disclosed by segment. Corporate overhead is zero: the four segments' operating earnings sum exactly to the consolidated $7,991M in 2026 Q2, so there is no unallocated line. Two things the engine cannot express, both disclosed: UnitedHealth's earnings are roughly two-thirds first-half (UnitedHealthcare ~75%, nearly all of Optum Health, Optum Insight and Optum Rx ~55% second-half), and the model glides margin smoothly, so every projected quarter carries a full-year-average margin rather than the intra-year shape; and the 1 January premium reset arrives as an even ARPU drift rather than a first-quarter step. Free cash flow here is EBITDA less capex less tax, which understates the cash UnitedHealth reports - 2026 Q2 operating cash flow was $11,052M against $7,991M of operating earnings, and full-year operating cash flow is guided at ~$24,000M - because insurance float is not in this model. Optum Insight excludes Alegeus, which closed on 2 July 2026 with no disclosed price or revenue contribution. Two history caveats: the 1 January 2026 Optum Financial realignment moved about $1.9B of annual revenue from Optum Health to Optum Insight and was recast only back to 2025 Q1, so the 2023-2024 quarters of those two lines sit on the old basis; and UnitedHealthcare membership moved from a total to a domestic basis in 2025. Consolidated revenue is unaffected in every quarter. Net debt is cash and short-term investments less total debt; the $57.7B of long-term investments is deliberately excluded because it backs medical costs payable and other insurance liabilities inside regulated subsidiaries - including it would show UnitedHealth in net cash and lift equity value by roughly $64 a share. Guidance check on the two projected 2026 quarters, added to first-half actuals: FY2026 consolidated revenue $446.4B against the > $439.0B January floor, UnitedHealthcare $342.7B against > $335.0B, Optum Health $92.4B against > $91.0B, Optum Insight $21.4B against > $21.0B with Alegeus excluded, Optum Rx $152.8B against > $150.5B on 1,541 million adjusted scripts against the > 1.52 billion floor, and eliminations $162.9B against the ~$158.5B guided - 27.0% of gross segment revenue, inside the 26.1-28.8% band of the last thirteen quarters. Every line sits above its floor, which is what floors set in January against a larger guided membership decline should do; the revenue guide was not raised on 16 July, only the earnings guide was.
Membership attrition does not stop at 46 million and commercial cost trend keeps rising, so the margin recovery is paid for out of a shrinking revenue base for longer than one year and Optum Health's fourth quarter turns negative again. Revenue is tilted down 0.35% a quarter across every line, each segment gives back 0.5-1.2pp of EBITDA margin, and the exit strikes at 10.5x.
Latest: $115.10B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $92.90B |
| 2023Q3 | $92.36B |
| 2023Q4 | $94.43B |
| 2024Q1 | $99.80B |
| 2024Q2 | $98.86B |
| 2024Q3 | $100.82B |
| 2024Q4 | $100.81B |
| 2025Q1 | $109.58B |
| 2025Q2 | $111.62B |
| 2025Q3 | $113.16B |
| 2025Q4 | $113.22B |
| 2026Q1 | $111.72B |
| 2026Q2 | $112.03B |
| 2026Q3E | $110.87B |
| 2026Q4E | $110.66B |
| 2027Q1E | $107.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $108.63B |
| 2027Q3E | $109.30B |
| 2027Q4E | $110.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $107.98B |
| 2028Q2E | $109.57B |
| 2028Q3E | $110.58B |
| 2028Q4E | $111.82B |
| 2029Q1E | $109.62B |
| 2029Q2E | $111.32B |
| 2029Q3E | $112.41B |
| 2029Q4E | $113.70B |
| 2030Q1E | $111.47B |
| 2030Q2E | $113.21B |
| 2030Q3E | $114.32B |
| 2030Q4E | $115.63B |
| 2031Q1E | $113.33B |
| 2031Q2E | $115.10B |
What drives each segment
UnitedHealthcare
Subscribers × ARPUA risk-bearing benefits business whose revenue is people served times premium per member per month, reset every 1 January. It does not grow by selling more to the same member; it grows by adding members and by the rate reset, and in 2026 management is deliberately shedding members to reprice. Membership fell 525,000 in the basis quarter and Medicare Advantage is down 965,000 since year-end 2025.
Latest: $89.15B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $70.23B |
| 2023Q3 | $69.85B |
| 2023Q4 | $70.81B |
| 2024Q1 | $75.36B |
| 2024Q2 | $73.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $74.85B |
| 2024Q4 | $74.13B |
| 2025Q1 | $84.62B |
| 2025Q2 | $86.10B |
| 2025Q3 | $87.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $87.11B |
| 2026Q1 | $86.27B |
| 2026Q2 | $86.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $85.05B |
| 2026Q4E | $84.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $84.19B |
| 2027Q2E | $84.10B |
| 2027Q3E | $84.15B |
| 2027Q4E | $84.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $84.51B |
| 2028Q2E | $84.77B |
| 2028Q3E | $85.07B |
| 2028Q4E | $85.39B |
| 2029Q1E | $85.73B |
| 2029Q2E | $86.09B |
| 2029Q3E | $86.45B |
| 2029Q4E | $86.83B |
| 2030Q1E | $87.21B |
| 2030Q2E | $87.59B |
| 2030Q3E | $87.98B |
| 2030Q4E | $88.37B |
| 2031Q1E | $88.76B |
| 2031Q2E | $89.15B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 4.26% is the guided full-year 2026 operating margin - $12,000M of operating earnings on the $335,000M revenue floor, 3.58% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. It is deliberately not the 2026 Q2 print of 4.6% operating: management has said UnitedHealthcare earnings are weighted about 75% to the first half, so the second-half quarters this model projects earn far less than the basis quarter did.
- Terminal 5.30% EBITDA is 4.62% operating, which is the level UnitedHealthcare actually printed in 2026 Q2 - the base case is that the strong quarter becomes the full-year average by 2031, not that margin keeps climbing past it.
- Membership is disclosed every quarter and is on a consistent domestic basis only from 2025; the 2023-2024 counts include South American businesses now held for sale. Revenue reconciles exactly to the three disclosed sub-lines in every quarter.
- The driver is left aseasonal on purpose. UnitedHealthcare revenue shows a Q1 lift of about 3% but the Q4 window spread of 6.0% is wider than the whole 5.7% amplitude, and the Q1 lift is the 1 January enrolment and rate reset that member-times-premium already carries.
Optum Health
Subscribers × ARPUCare delivery under value-based arrangements: revenue follows the number of patients the business is accountable for and the rate it is paid for them. It is shrinking on purpose while margin is rebuilt - 2026 Q2 revenue fell 5% year-over-year on about 700,000 fewer value-based-care patients, and the January outlook guides consumers served down to roughly 84 million.
Latest: $21.41B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $23.92B |
| 2023Q3 | $23.86B |
| 2023Q4 | $24.53B |
| 2024Q1 | $26.73B |
| 2024Q2 | $27.05B |
| 2024Q3 | $25.92B |
| 2024Q4 | $25.66B |
| 2025Q1 | $24.84B |
| 2025Q2 | $24.73B |
| 2025Q3 | $25.42B |
| 2025Q4 | $25.07B |
| 2026Q1 | $24.11B |
| 2026Q2 | $23.47B |
| 2026Q3E | $22.57B |
| 2026Q4E | $22.04B |
| 2027Q1E | $21.72B |
| 2027Q2E | $21.54B |
| 2027Q3E | $21.43B |
| 2027Q4E | $21.37B |
| 2028Q1E | $21.34B |
| 2028Q2E | $21.32B |
| 2028Q3E | $21.32B |
| 2028Q4E | $21.32B |
| 2029Q1E | $21.32B |
| 2029Q2E | $21.33B |
| 2029Q3E | $21.34B |
| 2029Q4E | $21.35B |
| 2030Q1E | $21.36B |
| 2030Q2E | $21.37B |
| 2030Q3E | $21.38B |
| 2030Q4E | $21.39B |
| 2031Q1E | $21.40B |
| 2031Q2E | $21.41B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 3.18% is the guided full-year 2026 reported operating margin - $2,275M of operating earnings on the $91,000M revenue floor, 2.50% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. Reported, not adjusted: the segment carries $405M of loss-contract amortisation in reported earnings that adjusted strips out, and the revenue guidance is on the reported basis too.
- Terminal 5.20% EBITDA is 4.52% operating, below the 5.1% the segment printed in 2026 Q2. Management has said nearly all of Optum Health's earnings land in the first half, with modest fourth-quarter losses, so the Q2 print is not a run rate and the base case does not assume it becomes one.
- Consumers served is a much looser measure than the true economic driver. Fully accountable patients - guided at about 4.1 million for 2026 - are disclosed only as an approximate annual figure, so the quarterly driver has to rest on consumers served and the derived rate per consumer is published as a trace so the looseness is visible.
- The metric was recast for the 1 January 2026 Optum Financial realignment: 31 December 2025 reads 95 million in the 4Q25 release and 92 million in the 1Q26 recast table. The 2026 basis is used. Revenue for 2023-2024 is as originally reported and still reconciles exactly, because each quarter's elimination line comes from the same release.
- Left aseasonal: the measured amplitude of 1.2% sits an order of magnitude inside its own 2.7-5.1% window spreads, and the series straddles both the realignment and the August 2025 Amedisys close.
Optum Insight
Growth pathTechnology, analytics and revenue-cycle services sold to payers and providers on multi-year contracts, plus Optum Financial and Optum Bank since 1 January 2026. Revenue is contract backlog converting into recognised revenue - but the company stopped publishing backlog in 2026, and no backlog-to-revenue conversion rate has ever been disclosed, so a sequential growth rate is the honest driver rather than a manufactured capacity model.
Latest: $6.20B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $4.67B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.98B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.79B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.50B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.54B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.93B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.78B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.23B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.32B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.46B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.40B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.42B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.43B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.45B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.48B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.54B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.57B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.61B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.65B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.69B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.74B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.78B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.83B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.88B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.93B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.98B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.04B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.15B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.20B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 24.13% is the guided full-year 2026 operating margin - the 16 July raise to $4,925M of operating earnings on the $21,000M revenue floor, 23.45% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. The pro-rata allocation understates this segment specifically: Optum Insight carries most of the group's acquired intangibles, and group intangible amortisation alone is guided at about $1,345M for 2026.
- Alegeus closed on 2 July 2026, two days into the first projected quarter, and no purchase price or revenue contribution has been disclosed. It is deliberately left out of the driver rather than guessed at, so this line is understated by an unknown amount from 2026 Q3 onward. Revisit at the 2026 Q3 print.
- Contract revenue backlog was $31.1 billion at 31 December 2025 and was dropped from the Optum Performance Metrics table in both 2026 releases. It was rejected as a capacity driver because using it would require inventing a conversion rate the company has never published.
- The 2023-2024 quarters predate the Optum Financial realignment and therefore exclude Optum Bank: FY2024 recast revenue is $20,356M against $18,757M as reported, so those quarters sit roughly 8-9% below the 2026 basis. UnitedHealth published no recast quarterly figures before 2025 Q1.
- Left aseasonal: the 4.5% measured amplitude sits inside a 5.4% Q4 window spread, and what looks like a second-half lift is contract timing over a cyberattack-distorted 2024.
Optum Rx
Units × pricePharmacy care services: revenue is adjusted scripts times revenue per script, both disclosed or directly derivable, and the two guided 2026 floors are internally consistent at $99.01 per script. Script volume follows the membership it serves, which is falling - 387 million scripts in the basis quarter against 414 million a year earlier - while revenue per script follows drug mix, which is rising.
Latest: $41.34B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $28.65B |
| 2023Q3 | $28.86B |
| 2023Q4 | $31.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $30.84B |
| 2024Q2 | $32.41B |
| 2024Q3 | $34.21B |
| 2024Q4 | $35.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $35.13B |
| 2025Q2 | $38.46B |
| 2025Q3 | $39.68B |
| 2025Q4 | $41.46B |
| 2026Q1 | $35.74B |
| 2026Q2 | $38.29B |
| 2026Q3E | $38.79B |
| 2026Q4E | $39.53B |
| 2027Q1E | $36.95B |
| 2027Q2E | $38.20B |
| 2027Q3E | $38.88B |
| 2027Q4E | $39.77B |
| 2028Q1E | $37.30B |
| 2028Q2E | $38.67B |
| 2028Q3E | $39.45B |
| 2028Q4E | $40.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $37.98B |
| 2029Q2E | $39.42B |
| 2029Q3E | $40.26B |
| 2029Q4E | $41.30B |
| 2030Q1E | $38.83B |
| 2030Q2E | $40.33B |
| 2030Q3E | $41.21B |
| 2030Q4E | $42.30B |
| 2031Q1E | $39.78B |
| 2031Q2E | $41.34B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 4.83% is the guided full-year 2026 operating margin - $6,250M of operating earnings on the $150,500M revenue floor, 4.15% - plus 0.68pp of pro-rata D&A. Terminal 4.95% barely moves, because the move to monthly per-member fees with full PBM and GPO fee transparency and 100% rebate pass-through changes what a script is worth and argues against extrapolating margin expansion here.
- This is the only vertical carrying a seasonality array, and the only one where the shape survives its own noise: revenue factors [0.9635, 0.9950, 1.0106, 1.0309] have an amplitude of 6.7% against window spreads of 1.3-2.3% for Q1-Q3 and 5.0% for Q4, Q1 is the trough and Q4 the peak in every window, and the disclosed script counts corroborate it independently at [0.987, 0.991, 0.994, 1.028].
- Because the driver is unit-based, the engine's deseasonalisation of the basis quarter does not reach it - that step only divides the growth driver's base. The script count entered here is therefore deseasonalised by hand: 387 million divided by the normalised Q2 factor of 0.995.
- Revenue amplitude (6.7%) is larger than script amplitude (4.1%); the excess is fourth-quarter drug mix and cost per script, which is why the seasonal factors sit on revenue while the script trace stays smooth.
- Adjusted scripts are the only volume metric UnitedHealth discloses every quarter on an unbroken basis, and every value in the thirteen-quarter series appears in at least two consecutive releases with the overlaps agreeing.
Intersegment eliminations
Growth pathOptum sells pharmacy care and care delivery to UnitedHealthcare, and the elimination is not an accounting residual to be hidden: at $41.2B it is 27% of gross segment revenue, and UnitedHealth discloses both the Optum-level and the corporate-level component in footnote (a) of every release. It is modelled as its own negative line because there is no disclosed external-revenue split by segment, so pushing it back into the four segments would mean inventing one.
Latest: -$43.00B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | -$34.56B |
| 2023Q3 | -$35.19B |
| 2023Q4 | -$36.87B |
| 2024Q1 | -$37.63B |
| 2024Q2 | -$39.02B |
| 2024Q3 | -$39.09B |
| 2024Q4 | -$39.54B |
| 2025Q1 | -$40.04B |
| 2025Q2 | -$42.90B |
| 2025Q3 | -$44.33B |
| 2025Q4 | -$45.88B |
| 2026Q1 | -$39.51B |
| 2026Q2 | -$41.15B |
| 2026Q3E | -$40.97B |
| 2026Q4E | -$40.83B |
| 2027Q1E | -$40.74B |
| 2027Q2E | -$40.69B |
| 2027Q3E | -$40.67B |
| 2027Q4E | -$40.69B |
| 2028Q1E | -$40.73B |
| 2028Q2E | -$40.81B |
| 2028Q3E | -$40.90B |
| 2028Q4E | -$41.02B |
| 2029Q1E | -$41.15B |
| 2029Q2E | -$41.30B |
| 2029Q3E | -$41.47B |
| 2029Q4E | -$41.66B |
| 2030Q1E | -$41.85B |
| 2030Q2E | -$42.06B |
| 2030Q3E | -$42.28B |
| 2030Q4E | -$42.51B |
| 2031Q1E | -$42.75B |
| 2031Q2E | -$43.00B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This vertical's revenue is negative, which the engine handles: a growth driver compounds a negative base without special-casing and the spec imposes no positivity constraint on actuals. It carries no seasonality array, both because the validator requires positive factors and because deseasonalising a negative base would be meaningless.
- Zero margin and zero capex are the right answers rather than placeholders: the four segments' operating earnings sum exactly to consolidated earnings from operations in 2026 Q2 ($3,942M + $1,190M + $1,369M + $1,490M = $7,991M), so consolidated EBITDA is the sum of the four segments' EBITDA with nothing left over for the elimination to carry.
- The stable feature of this line is not a calendar shape but its ratio to gross segment revenue, which has sat between 26.1% and 28.8% across all thirteen quarters and matches the 26.5% implied by the January 2026 guidance ($158,500M of eliminations against $597,500M of gross segment revenue).
- The risk that matters here is a re-cut of intersegment volume - if Optum Rx's fee-based model changes how internal pharmacy revenue is booked, the ratio could step, and a model holding it flat would mis-state consolidated revenue by tens of billions.
- The 2025 Q4 point is the only estimated cell in the whole history: the Optum-level elimination of $1,645M is read from the 1Q26 recast table rather than the 4Q25 release, and the corporate-level $44,231M is derived as UnitedHealthcare $87,113M plus Optum $70,333M less consolidated $113,215M. The total still reconciles exactly to reported consolidated revenue.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Cost trend and the quarter that already went wrong
- Jul 16, 2026 we are not yet seeing evidence of cost trend moderation - in fact, it is the opposite, with medical cost trends modestly above the 11% level we previously saw
- Jan 27, 2026 2026 Outlook data elements: UnitedHealth Group revenue > $439,000M, of which UnitedHealthcare > $335,000M and Optum > $257,500M, against eliminations of ~$(153,500)M
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The raise, and what management said was behind it
- Jul 16, 2026 Updated Full Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Range to $18.45 to $18.95 Per Share; Adjusted Earnings Range of $19.50 to $20.00 Per Share
- Jul 16, 2026 We now expect full-year Medicare Advantage enrollment to decline by approximately 1.1 million and Medicare margins to finish 2026 above 3%
- Jul 16, 2026 The second quarter 2026 medical care ratio was 86.7% compared to 89.4% in the second quarter 2025.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $80.73B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $458.38B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $31.00B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 10.5x |
| Terminal value | $325.48B |
| Discounted at 8.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $216.46B |
| Enterprise value | $297.19B |
| Net cash | -$41.86B |
| Equity value | $255.33B |
| Shares | 0.90B |
| Fair value per share | $284.46 |
| Against the current price of $395.05 | -28% |
Exit on EBITDA, not revenue. UnitedHealth trades at 0.91x guided 2026 revenue, where 100bp of group operating margin disappears into a rounding error, and the whole equity story here is margin: each 10bp of group operating margin on $439B is $439M of operating earnings, about $0.40 of adjusted EPS. Enterprise value is $399.8B today - $358.0B of market capitalisation at $398.76 on 897,594,847 shares plus $41.9B of net debt - which is 13.4x guided 2026 EBITDA of $29,850M (>$25,450M of operating earnings plus ~$4,400M of D&A), 20.2x the adjusted EPS midpoint and 21.3x the GAAP midpoint. The 12x exit is assumed and deliberately below today's 13.4x, so the model banks no multiple expansion; it is a sensitivity, not a researched comparable, because no peer multiple set was verified against a primary source. The 8.5% discount rate is a round WACC for an A-rated, low-beta business at 41.2% debt-to-capital, with room for regulatory risk. Net debt excludes the $57.7B of long-term investments, which back medical costs payable and other insurance liabilities inside regulated subsidiaries; netting them would flip UnitedHealth to net cash and add roughly $64 a share. Sensitivity, computed on this model: holding everything else at base, an exit of 10.5x gives $361.16 a share and 13.0x gives $431.76, about $28 a turn. The Bear case's fall from $403.52 to $284.46 is roughly $85 operating - the margin deltas and the -0.35%/qtr revenue tilt - and the remaining $34 the multiple, so the operating assumptions on this page matter more than the exit, not less.
Read the other way round: at $395.05 the market is paying 15.3x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Group capital expenditure
2026 Q3 → 2031 Q2UnitedHealth does not disclose capex by segment, so the whole programme is carried here and every vertical's capex intensity is zero. $20,000M over twenty quarters is $1,000M a quarter, a little above the ~$3,800M guided for 2026 (2026 Q1 was $763M and Q2 $799M, so the guide itself implies a second-half step up). At 0.87% of guided 2026 revenue this is an asset-light business whose real capital is regulatory capital, not plant.
The projected path
| Quarter | UnitedHealthcare | Optum Health | Optum Insight | Optum Rx | Intersegment eliminations | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $85.05B | $22.57B | $5.42B | $38.79B | -$40.97B | $110.87B | -2% | $6.47B | $1.00B | $4.46B | +2 | $4.37B |
| 2026 Q4E | $84.48B | $22.04B | $5.43B | $39.53B | -$40.83B | $110.66B | -2% | $6.55B | $1.00B | $4.52B | +2 | $4.34B |
| 2027 Q1E | $84.19B | $21.72B | $5.45B | $36.95B | -$40.74B | $107.58B | -4% | $6.50B | $1.00B | $4.48B | +0 | $4.22B |
| 2027 Q2E | $84.10B | $21.54B | $5.48B | $38.20B | -$40.69B | $108.63B | -3% | $6.63B | $1.00B | $4.58B | +1 | $4.23B |
| 2027 Q3E | $84.15B | $21.43B | $5.51B | $38.88B | -$40.67B | $109.30B | -1% | $6.73B | $1.00B | $4.67B | +3 | $4.22B |
| 2027 Q4E | $84.29B | $21.37B | $5.54B | $39.77B | -$40.69B | $110.29B | +0% | $6.84B | $1.00B | $4.76B | +4 | $4.21B |
| 2028 Q1E | $84.51B | $21.34B | $5.57B | $37.30B | -$40.73B | $107.98B | +0% | $6.81B | $1.00B | $4.73B | +5 | $4.10B |
| 2028 Q2E | $84.77B | $21.32B | $5.61B | $38.67B | -$40.81B | $109.57B | +1% | $6.94B | $1.00B | $4.84B | +5 | $4.11B |
| 2028 Q3E | $85.07B | $21.32B | $5.65B | $39.45B | -$40.90B | $110.58B | +1% | $7.05B | $1.00B | $4.93B | +6 | $4.10B |
| 2028 Q4E | $85.39B | $21.32B | $5.69B | $40.43B | -$41.02B | $111.82B | +1% | $7.16B | $1.00B | $5.02B | +6 | $4.10B |
| 2029 Q1E | $85.73B | $21.32B | $5.74B | $37.98B | -$41.15B | $109.62B | +2% | $7.13B | $1.00B | $4.99B | +6 | $3.99B |
| 2029 Q2E | $86.09B | $21.33B | $5.78B | $39.42B | -$41.30B | $111.32B | +2% | $7.26B | $1.00B | $5.10B | +6 | $3.99B |
| 2029 Q3E | $86.45B | $21.34B | $5.83B | $40.26B | -$41.47B | $112.41B | +2% | $7.36B | $1.00B | $5.19B | +6 | $3.98B |
| 2029 Q4E | $86.83B | $21.35B | $5.88B | $41.30B | -$41.66B | $113.70B | +2% | $7.48B | $1.00B | $5.28B | +6 | $3.97B |
| 2030 Q1E | $87.21B | $21.36B | $5.93B | $38.83B | -$41.85B | $111.47B | +2% | $7.43B | $1.00B | $5.24B | +6 | $3.86B |
| 2030 Q2E | $87.59B | $21.37B | $5.98B | $40.33B | -$42.06B | $113.21B | +2% | $7.56B | $1.00B | $5.35B | +6 | $3.86B |
| 2030 Q3E | $87.98B | $21.38B | $6.04B | $41.21B | -$42.28B | $114.32B | +2% | $7.66B | $1.00B | $5.43B | +6 | $3.84B |
| 2030 Q4E | $88.37B | $21.39B | $6.09B | $42.30B | -$42.51B | $115.63B | +2% | $7.77B | $1.00B | $5.52B | +6 | $3.82B |
| 2031 Q1E | $88.76B | $21.40B | $6.15B | $39.78B | -$42.75B | $113.33B | +2% | $7.72B | $1.00B | $5.48B | +7 | $3.72B |
| 2031 Q2E | $89.15B | $21.41B | $6.20B | $41.34B | -$43.00B | $115.10B | +2% | $7.85B | $1.00B | $5.58B | +7 | $3.71B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $403.52 | First published. Five verticals from the disclosed Revenues by Business schedule, basis 2026 Q2, margins set to the 16 July 2026 guided full-year averages rather than the second-quarter print. |