SNOW · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Snowflake's fiscal year is named for the calendar year it ends in, so FY2027 Q2 is the July 2026 quarter; the spec labels it 2027 Q2. Two verticals, because product revenue and professional services are the only split Snowflake discloses. Product revenue $1,491,861K and professional services and other $54,932K sum exactly to reported total revenue of $1,546,793K. Nothing is apportioned, and no sub-line is invented: Snowflake publishes no AI revenue figure at all - the CFO calls it 'a meaningful step-up in AI revenue' and gives no number. The platform driver is customers times revenue per customer. Both inputs come from the Q2 FY2027 call rather than the release: the release gives only net adds, and Ramaswamy states the total count of 14,554. Note that 13,912 + 692 net adds = 14,604, not 14,554 - the count absorbs churn and definitional adjustments, so differencing it is wrong and the driver uses the observed 642 change, not the disclosed 692 metric. Calibration. The model reproduces the guided quarter: Q3 FY2027 product revenue of $1,590.8M against a guide of $1,588M to $1,593M. Full-year FY2027 product revenue lands at about $6,113M against the $6,070M management guided on 2 September, +0.7%. That guide was RAISED from $5,840M in this print, and management says approximately one percentage point of the 36% growth comes from the Observe acquisition rather than organically. Seasonality: none is applied. Product revenue is consumption-billed and grows monotonically in the tracked window. Free cash flow is violently seasonal - the July quarter is the trough at a 5.4% margin against 59.6% in the January quarter - but that is a cash-collection shape, not a revenue shape, and this model projects revenue. Any single-quarter Rule of 40 for this ticker is close to meaningless; only the trailing-four-quarter window is honest.
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Latest: $4.05B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $829M |
| 2025Q2 | $869M |
| 2025Q3 | $942M |
| 2025Q4 | $987M |
| 2026Q1 | $1.04B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.14B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.21B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.28B |
| 2027Q1 | $1.39B |
| 2027Q2 | $1.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.63B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.71B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.81B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.90B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.00B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.10B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.32B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.44B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.56B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.68B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.82B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.95B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.39B |
| 2031Q3E | $3.54B |
| 2031Q4E | $3.71B |
| 2032Q1E | $3.87B |
| 2032Q2E | $4.05B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The guide that came with the beat
- May 27, 2026 Full year fiscal 2027 product revenue of $5,840 million, representing 31% year-over-year growth, with non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow margin of 23%.
- May 27, 2026 Remaining performance obligations of $9.21 billion, representing 38% year-over-year growth.
- Feb 25, 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow margin of 25% for fiscal 2026, with non-GAAP product gross margin of 76%.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The quarter that accelerated
- May 27, 2026 Product revenue of $1.33 billion in the first quarter, representing 34% year-over-year growth.
- May 27, 2026 Net revenue retention rate of 126%, and 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million.
- May 27, 2026 We now have 64 customers spending more than $10 million on a trailing 12-month basis.
Control plane case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Control plane column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The control-plane claim
- May 27, 2026 With Cortex Code and Snowflake Intelligence, we are extending from the trusted foundation for enterprise data and context to become the control plane for the Agentic Enterprise.
- May 27, 2026 Accounts using Snowflake Intelligence more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, and CoCo is already in use with more than 7,100 accounts.
- May 27, 2026 Under the amended agreement, we have committed to a cumulative minimum spend of $6.0 billion over a five-year contract term ending March 31, 2031.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.5% a year with an exit multiple of 6.0x on revenue. The sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $4.78B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $15.17B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $3.19B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 6.0x |
| Terminal value | $91.02B |
| Discounted at 11.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $52.81B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 92% |
| Enterprise value | $57.59B |
| Net cash | $2.05B |
| Equity value | $59.64B |
| Shares | 0.38B |
| Fair value per share | $157.82 |
| Against the deployed price of $329.72, as of | −52% |
9x terminal revenue. The terminal carries 93.8% of enterprise value, which is extreme and is the number to argue about first: Snowflake is barely EBITDA-positive today, so almost nothing in the explicit window is cash flow and the whole valuation is an argument about the exit multiple. At 8x the base fair value falls to roughly $258 and at 10x it rises to roughly $316, so a single turn of the multiple is worth about $29 a share - more than the entire projected free cash flow of the next three years. Net cash of $2,045M is cash and equivalents of $1,707M plus short-term investments of $638M plus long-term investments of $1,984M, less the $2,284M of convertible senior notes, which are the only borrowing on the balance sheet. Management gave the gross figure on the call as '$4.3 billion in cash equivalents, short-term, and long-term investments'.
Read the other way round: at $329.72 the market is paying 13.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Platform consumption (product revenue) | Professional services and other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q3E | $1.57B | $54M | $1.63B | +34% | $169M | $13M | $117M | +41 | $114M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.66B | $53M | $1.71B | +34% | $195M | $15M | $135M | +41 | $128M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.75B | $52M | $1.81B | +30% | $222M | $17M | $154M | +38 | $142M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.85B | $52M | $1.90B | +23% | $250M | $19M | $174M | +32 | $156M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.95B | $52M | $2.00B | +23% | $280M | $21M | $194M | +32 | $170M |
| 2028 Q4E | $2.05B | $52M | $2.10B | +23% | $310M | $23M | $216M | +33 | $183M |
| 2029 Q1E | $2.16B | $52M | $2.21B | +22% | $341M | $25M | $238M | +33 | $196M |
| 2029 Q2E | $2.27B | $52M | $2.32B | +22% | $374M | $27M | $261M | +33 | $210M |
| 2029 Q3E | $2.39B | $52M | $2.44B | +22% | $408M | $29M | $284M | +34 | $223M |
| 2029 Q4E | $2.51B | $53M | $2.56B | +22% | $443M | $31M | $309M | +34 | $235M |
| 2030 Q1E | $2.63B | $53M | $2.68B | +22% | $479M | $33M | $335M | +34 | $248M |
| 2030 Q2E | $2.76B | $53M | $2.82B | +21% | $517M | $36M | $361M | +34 | $261M |
| 2030 Q3E | $2.90B | $54M | $2.95B | +21% | $556M | $38M | $389M | +34 | $273M |
| 2030 Q4E | $3.04B | $54M | $3.09B | +21% | $597M | $40M | $417M | +34 | $285M |
| 2031 Q1E | $3.18B | $55M | $3.24B | +21% | $638M | $43M | $447M | +34 | $297M |
| 2031 Q2E | $3.33B | $56M | $3.39B | +20% | $682M | $45M | $477M | +34 | $309M |
| 2031 Q3E | $3.49B | $56M | $3.54B | +20% | $726M | $48M | $509M | +34 | $320M |
| 2031 Q4E | $3.65B | $57M | $3.71B | +20% | $773M | $51M | $542M | +34 | $332M |
| 2032 Q1E | $3.82B | $58M | $3.87B | +20% | $820M | $53M | $575M | +35 | $343M |
| 2032 Q2E | $3.99B | $58M | $4.05B | +19% | $870M | $56M | $610M | +35 | $354M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $193.27 | First publication, built on the fiscal 2027 first-quarter print of 27 May 2026. Two verticals - product revenue and professional services, the only revenue split Snowflake discloses - with the platform line driven by the disclosed customer count and a derived product revenue per customer, tuned so the three projected quarters of fiscal 2027 reproduce the $5,840 million full-year product revenue guide. |
| 2026-09-03 | $287.13 | Rebuilt on the Q2 FY2027 print and call. Basis moves from FY2027 Q1 to FY2027 Q2. The platform driver is re-anchored on the customer count Ramaswamy gave on the call (14,554, which the release does not publish) and on revenue per customer of $102,505 a quarter, and recalibrated to reproduce the raised guidance - Q3 product revenue of $1,588-1,593M and full-year product revenue of $6,070M, up from the $5,840M the previous build was tuned to. Shares, net cash and reference price updated to the Q2 balance sheet and the 2 September close. |