SMCI News
R40 coverage for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI).
R40 Coverage
Supermicro Is Capacity-Bound. Its Rack Ceiling Is Worth $12 to Our Fair Value.
Supermicro rose 9.5% on a $1.5 trillion 2030 server forecast. Matching that growth costs our fair value $1.07. Its own rack capacity is worth $12.15.
Cisco Added Supermicro to Its AI Factory.
Cisco adds Supermicro's Vera Rubin systems to its Secure AI Factory in October — with no customer order, rack count, contract value or margin disclosed.
Supermicro's Board Cleared Current Management—One Less Blocker to Our $60.79 Base Case.
Supermicro's independent review cleared current management and the issued financials — removing one of the blockers between $37.00 and our $60.79 base case.
Supermicro Beat Every Estimate on the Street. Then It Guided the Margin Away.
Supermicro beat everything — 17.47% gross margin, $1.62 GAAP EPS — then guided revenue up 30-39% sequentially with net income down 38-44%. The margin left.
Supermicro Already Told Us the Revenue Missed and the Margin Doubled. Tonight Is About Which One Matters.
Supermicro pre-announced the miss and the margin doubling on July 21, so estimates span $0.71 to $1.33. Tonight settles which of the two numbers matters.
Super Micro Books $60 Billion in New Orders — Even as Full Q4 Revenue Lands Near the Low End
Supermicro's preliminary Q4 FY2026 update showed revenue tracking near the low end of guidance, but gross margins nearly doubled and new orders topped $60 billion, sending shares sharply higher. We break down what the record backlog means for the AI server buildout — and the export-control cloud still hanging over the stock.