SCHW · Forward model · Other revenue · Bull case
What has to happen in Other revenue
Model as of
This page changes Other revenue inside the complete SCHW model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Other revenue
A residual: industry fees, certain service fees, other gains and losses, AND the provision for credit losses on bank loans. 4.8% of the basis quarter and the only line with no priced volume Schwab publishes, so it takes a growth driver by exclusion rather than by choice. It jumped 75% sequentially to $342M in the basis quarter and the 10-Q attributes that 'largely' to higher industry fees after the SEC raised its Section 31 fee rate effective 4 April 2026 - a rate reset annually that can fall as easily as it rose. This is also where the credit cycle lives: the bank-loan provision is netted inside this revenue line rather than shown as an expense.
Latest: $401M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q4 | $135M |
| 2022Q1 | $164M |
| 2022Q2 | $260M |
| 2022Q3 | $184M |
| 2022Q4 | $174M |
| 2023Q1 | $185M |
| 2023Q2 | $215M |
| 2023Q3 | $172M |
| 2023Q4 | $147M |
| 2024Q1 | $159M |
| 2024Q2 | $219M |
| 2024Q3 | $200M |
| 2024Q4 | $175M |
| 2025Q1 | $210M |
| 2025Q2 | $260M |
| 2025Q3 | $170M |
| 2025Q4 | $127M |
| 2026Q1 | $195M |
| 2026Q2 | $342M |
| 2026Q3E | $323M |
| 2026Q4E | $314M |
| 2027Q1E | $310M |
| 2027Q2E | $310M |
| 2027Q3E | $312M |
| 2027Q4E | $315M |
| 2028Q1E | $319M |
| 2028Q2E | $324M |
| 2028Q3E | $329M |
| 2028Q4E | $334M |
| 2029Q1E | $340M |
| 2029Q2E | $346M |
| 2029Q3E | $353M |
| 2029Q4E | $359M |
| 2030Q1E | $366M |
| 2030Q2E | $373M |
| 2030Q3E | $379M |
| 2030Q4E | $386M |
| 2031Q1E | $394M |
| 2031Q2E | $401M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A GROWTH driver BY EXCLUSION. There is no published volume or price for industry fees, service fees or other gains and losses, so this is the one line in the model where the engine is extrapolating a dollar level rather than charging a disclosed price against a disclosed base.
- SEASONALITY PASSES THE SPREAD GATE AND IS STILL REJECTED - the one judgement call in the set. Centred-moving-average factors are [0.9668, 1.2638, 0.9598, 0.8096], a signal of 0.4542 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.2511, a 1.81:1 ratio that clears the mechanical test, and the four Q2 window ratios are consistently high at 1.364, 1.174, 1.185, 1.315.
- It is rejected on STABILITY, on the same ground GS's Global Banking & Markets was rejected at a stronger 2.34:1: the Q4 window ratios run 0.892, 0.846, 0.849, 0.641, which is a trend rather than a repeat. The line is 2.4%-4.8% of revenue, so the whole decision is worth a fraction of a percent of fair value.
- THIS IS THE VERTICAL THAT CARRIES THE CREDIT CYCLE, and it is a REVENUE line that can go negative if provisions spike. It never has in nineteen quarters - the minimum is $127M in 2025 Q4 - and the base case's minimum projected quarter is $302.3M, so the 0.2% capex intensity is safe here. If a future revision drives this line below zero, capexIntensity on this vertical must be set to EXACTLY 0 or the engine will print a phantom cash inflow.