NVDA · Forward model · Data Center — Networking · China returns case
What has to happen in Data Center — Networking
Model as of
This page changes Data Center — Networking inside the complete NVDA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Data Center — Networking
Basis quarter$17.46B
Final quarter$66.75B
Implied CAGR+31%
Final revenue mix24%
NVLink, InfiniBand and Spectrum-X Ethernet: the fabric that turns racks into one machine. NVIDIA no longer tabulates it — the only figure for the basis quarter is the call's "another record quarter, with revenue growing 18% on a sequential basis", with Spectrum-X Ethernet up 2.6x year on year.
Last four quarters
2026 Q3
$8.19B
Reported
2026 Q4
$10.98B
Reported
2027 Q1
$14.80B
Estimated
2027 Q2
$17.46B
Estimated
NVLink and NVSwitch scale-up fabricInfiniBand (Quantum) scale-outSpectrum-X EthernetBlueField DPUs and optics
Units
24095/qtr
growing +13.5% per quarter
The same 24,095 racks as compute. Networking attaches to systems; it is not a separate order book.
Price per unit
$725000
drifting +1.2% per quarter
$725k of networking per rack, backed out of an estimated $17.5B over the same rack count. The model had projected $743k, so content per rack came in slightly BELOW the rising path — because compute volume beat by more than networking revenue did.
Data Center — Networking
Latest: $66.75B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $4.96B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.25B |
| 2026Q3 | $8.19B |
| 2026Q4 | $10.98B |
| 2027Q1 | $14.80B |
| 2027Q2 | $17.46B |
| 2027Q3E | $20.18B |
| 2027Q4E | $23.30B |
| 2028Q1E | $26.91B |
| 2028Q2E | $31.08B |
| 2028Q3E | $35.90B |
| 2028Q4E | $41.46B |
| 2029Q1E | $47.88B |
| 2029Q2E | $54.17B |
| 2029Q3E | $55.12B |
| 2029Q4E | $56.09B |
| 2030Q1E | $57.07B |
| 2030Q2E | $58.07B |
| 2030Q3E | $59.09B |
| 2030Q4E | $60.13B |
| 2031Q1E | $61.19B |
| 2031Q2E | $62.26B |
| 2031Q3E | $63.36B |
| 2031Q4E | $64.47B |
| 2032Q1E | $65.60B |
| 2032Q2E | $66.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line is modelled on the SAME rack count as compute, at a different price. Networking is not sold on its own — it is attached to the systems compute ships — so giving it an independent growth rate would let the two drift apart in a way the business cannot.
- The whole claim is therefore in the price: $725k of networking content per rack today, drifting UP 1.25% a quarter. That is the one price in this model that rises, and it encodes scale-up NVLink plus Spectrum-X displacing third-party Ethernet. Networking share of Data Center goes from 20% to about 28% over the horizon.
- The disclosure this line depends on is now one sentence. Through 2026 Q4 NVIDIA tabulated compute against networking; for 2027 Q1 it gave the split in prose; for the basis quarter it gave only a sequential growth rate on the call. Both Data Center lines here are therefore estimates on top of an estimate, and if the next call drops the growth rate too, the split has to be abandoned and this model re-cut on the Hyperscale/ACIE axis.
- The risk this hides: networking is the part of the rack that merchant silicon attacks first, and Broadcom is the reason. If you think content per rack flattens rather than compounds, that slider takes the line back to a fifth of Data Center and takes roughly a tenth off the fair value.
- Margin is set below compute — 68% gliding to 60% — because optics and cabling carry real bill-of-materials cost that a GPU does not.