NVDA · Forward model · Edge Computing · Bull case
What has to happen in Edge Computing
Model as of
This page changes Edge Computing inside the complete NVDA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Edge Computing
Basis quarter$7.20B
Final quarter$21.03B
Implied CAGR+24%
Final revenue mix5%
Everything that is not a data centre: GeForce and consoles, RTX workstations, DRIVE and Jetson, AI-RAN. NVIDIA renamed and merged these four platforms into one line this quarter, which is a fair description of how much it matters to the P&L.
Last four quarters
2026 Q3
$5.79B
Reported
2026 Q4
$5.81B
Reported
2027 Q1
$6.37B
Reported
2027 Q2
$7.20B
Reported
GeForce gaming and game consolesRTX workstations (professional visualization)Automotive and robotics (DRIVE, Jetson Thor)OEM, AI-RAN and other
Sequential growth
+4.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
4% a quarter, up from 3%. The line has now grown 9.6% and 13.0% in the last two quarters and printed $7,198M against a modelled $6,560M, so 3% was too dull; 4% still fades quickly to the terminal rate.
Edge Computing
Latest: $21.03B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $4.95B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.65B |
| 2026Q3 | $5.79B |
| 2026Q4 | $5.81B |
| 2027Q1 | $6.37B |
| 2027Q2 | $7.20B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.64B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.09B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.57B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.07B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.59B |
| 2028Q4E | $10.13B |
| 2029Q1E | $10.70B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.29B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.91B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.56B |
| 2030Q1E | $13.24B |
| 2030Q2E | $13.95B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.70B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $16.30B |
| 2031Q2E | $17.16B |
| 2031Q3E | $18.06B |
| 2031Q4E | $19.00B |
| 2032Q1E | $19.99B |
| 2032Q2E | $21.03B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the one line carried on a plain growth rate, because there is no operating driver worth modelling: NVIDIA has just stopped reporting the four platforms separately, so the units underneath are no longer visible even in principle.
- The historical points are exact, not apportioned. Total revenue less Data Center gives the same number as adding up Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive and OEM & Other for every quarter shown — 2026 Q4 is 3,727 + 1,321 + 604 + 161 = 5,813, which is 68,127 less 62,314.
- 4% a quarter decaying to 1.5% is a deliberately dull assumption for a line NVIDIA has spent a year describing as the home of physical AI and robotics. Those are real and they are small: Edge Computing is 7.5% of the company and falling as a share even while it grows. Betting on it here would move the fair value by less than the rounding on Data Center.
- It also holds a real risk that is easy to miss — the CFO commentary blames slower consumer PC demand on elevated memory prices. Micron's supercycle is NVIDIA's cost line, at both ends of the building.