MSTR · Forward model · Subscription services
What has to happen in Subscription services
Model as of
This page changes Subscription services inside the complete MSTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Subscription services
The one growing line in the company. Cloud subscription revenue has compounded from $18.8m a quarter in March 2023 to $62.9m in June 2026, a 3.3x rise, while consolidated revenue stood still - because almost all of it is the same customers moving off perpetual licences and on-premise maintenance rather than new logos. That is why it is not modelled as an open-ended growth line: the pool it converts is the product support base, which has fallen from $65.5m to $40.2m and is finite. Growth has already slowed from 69.5% year over year to 54.0% across five quarters, and to 6.8% sequentially in the basis quarter from 13.8% in the one before.
Latest: $112M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $19M |
| 2023Q2 | $20M |
| 2023Q3 | $21M |
| 2023Q4 | $22M |
| 2024Q1 | $23M |
| 2024Q2 | $24M |
| 2024Q3 | $28M |
| 2024Q4 | $32M |
| 2025Q1 | $37M |
| 2025Q2 | $41M |
| 2025Q3 | $46M |
| 2025Q4 | $52M |
| 2026Q1 | $59M |
| 2026Q2 | $63M |
| 2026Q3E | $67M |
| 2026Q4E | $70M |
| 2027Q1E | $74M |
| 2027Q2E | $77M |
| 2027Q3E | $80M |
| 2027Q4E | $82M |
| 2028Q1E | $85M |
| 2028Q2E | $88M |
| 2028Q3E | $90M |
| 2028Q4E | $92M |
| 2029Q1E | $94M |
| 2029Q2E | $97M |
| 2029Q3E | $99M |
| 2029Q4E | $101M |
| 2030Q1E | $103M |
| 2030Q2E | $105M |
| 2030Q3E | $106M |
| 2030Q4E | $108M |
| 2031Q1E | $110M |
| 2031Q2E | $112M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Eleven of the fourteen quarters are printed on the face of a 10-Q or 10-K income statement. The three marked estimated are the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025, each computed as the 10-K full year less the nine months in that year's third-quarter 10-Q: 81,179 - 59,662, 106,776 - 74,846 and 175,657 - 123,899. Nothing is apportioned and no split is invented.
- Cost of subscription services is disclosed separately, so the 63.8% gross margin is measured rather than assumed: $22,743 thousand of cost on $62,858 thousand of revenue in the basis quarter.
- The 18.61% EBITDA margin is NOT disclosed. Strategy allocates cost of revenue by line but never operating expense, so the Software segment's operating cost is allocated across the three verticals pro rata to each line's gross profit. That allocation shifts EBITDA between verticals and leaves the software total, and therefore fair value, unchanged.
- Subscription revenue passed product support for the first time in the December 2025 quarter and is now 56% larger than it.
- Sequential growth of 6.8% in the basis quarter is the slowest in eight quarters and is the most important operating datapoint in this model - which is worth saying plainly, because it is worth about twenty cents a share.