LMND · Forward model · Other, including Life · Schreiber case
What has to happen in Other, including Life
Model as of
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Other, including Life
Basis quarter$4M
Final quarter$33M
Implied CAGR+51%
Final revenue mix2%
Everything else, principally Life, at $24M of in-force premium - under 2% of the book. Premium per policy is $1,148, the second highest after Car, because term life is sold in large annual amounts to a small number of customers. It is carried as its own line because Lemonade publishes it separately, not because it moves the answer: a doubling here is worth less than a two-point move in the pet loss ratio.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$3M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$4M
Estimated
Term lifeResidual lines
Subscribers
21K
0.7% of a 3.0M addressable base
20,906 policies: $24M of in-force premium over $1148 of premium per policy.
Addressable subscribers
3.0M
the S-curve ceiling
Term-life policies reachable through the existing customer base rather than a standalone life market.
Net adds
1K/qtr
ramping toward 4K/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
1,316 policies added in the basis quarter, the change in the derived policy count.
Net-add ceiling
4K/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
4,000 policies a quarter, where this line's pace of adds stops rising.
ARPU
$67.25/mo
drifting +3.0% per quarter, floor $0.00
$67.25 a month net of reinsurance, against $95.67 gross that Lemonade publishes.
Non-subscriber revenue
$0/qtr
growing 0.0% per quarter
Zero. Every dollar of this line is premium earned on the policy base; there is no non-policy revenue in it.
Other, including Life
Latest: $33M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $1M |
| 2024Q4 | $1M |
| 2025Q1 | $1M |
| 2025Q2 | $2M |
| 2025Q3 | $2M |
| 2025Q4 | $3M |
| 2026Q1 | $4M |
| 2026Q2 | $4M |
| 2026Q3E | $5M |
| 2026Q4E | $5M |
| 2027Q1E | $6M |
| 2027Q2E | $7M |
| 2027Q3E | $7M |
| 2027Q4E | $8M |
| 2028Q1E | $9M |
| 2028Q2E | $10M |
| 2028Q3E | $11M |
| 2028Q4E | $13M |
| 2029Q1E | $14M |
| 2029Q2E | $16M |
| 2029Q3E | $17M |
| 2029Q4E | $19M |
| 2030Q1E | $21M |
| 2030Q2E | $23M |
| 2030Q3E | $25M |
| 2030Q4E | $28M |
| 2031Q1E | $30M |
| 2031Q2E | $33M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Principally term life, disclosed by Lemonade as a separate in-force premium line but never with its own loss ratio, so this line carries the consolidated gross loss ratio rather than one of its own.
- Under 2% of in-force premium and about 1.4% of revenue. It is carried because Lemonade publishes it, and folding it into another line would misstate that line's premium per policy.
- Premium per policy of $1,148 is second only to Car, which is what a small book of annual term-life premiums looks like next to monthly renters cover.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.