KLAR · Forward model · Global (Ex-US)
What has to happen in Global (Ex-US)
Model as of
This page changes Global (Ex-US) inside the complete KLAR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Global (Ex-US)
The cash engine and the problem child at once: 78% of group GMV, 64% of revenue and 80% of transaction margin dollars, running at a 53.8% transaction margin that management says is approaching the roughly 60% of its most established markets. It is also where the guidance cut came from. Germany is Klarna's largest market by volume, German retail sales 'grew less than 1% in real terms in the first half', and the revised guide 'simply assumes Germany stays softer rather than recovering'. Projected the same way as the US line - disclosed GMV multiplied by a disclosed take rate - because Germany, the UK and 'other countries' appear in the IFRS geographic note for REVENUE ONLY, with no GMV, no costs and no margin, so they cannot become verticals of their own.
Latest: $711M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $463M |
| 2024Q2 | $482M |
| 2024Q3 | $496M |
| 2024Q4 | $521M |
| 2025Q1 | $463M |
| 2025Q2 | $548M |
| 2025Q3 | $586M |
| 2025Q4 | $669M |
| 2026Q1 | $613M |
| 2026Q2 | $666M |
| 2026Q3E | $606M |
| 2026Q4E | $631M |
| 2027Q1E | $527M |
| 2027Q2E | $591M |
| 2027Q3E | $598M |
| 2027Q4E | $636M |
| 2028Q1E | $540M |
| 2028Q2E | $611M |
| 2028Q3E | $622M |
| 2028Q4E | $665M |
| 2029Q1E | $566M |
| 2029Q2E | $642M |
| 2029Q3E | $654M |
| 2029Q4E | $700M |
| 2030Q1E | $595M |
| 2030Q2E | $675M |
| 2030Q3E | $688M |
| 2030Q4E | $736M |
| 2031Q1E | $627M |
| 2031Q2E | $711M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 'EBITDA margin' is the DISCLOSED ex-US transaction margin - $358m on $666m of revenue, 53.75% - net of $87m of ex-US credit provisions and $108m of ex-US funding costs. The 57.65% entered is 53.75% divided by 0.9323, putting it on the post-fair-value reported basis the driver runs on. The basis quarter was helped by a back-book sale and by the German forward-flow programme launched in the quarter, both called out by management.
- Germany is the largest ex-US market by volume and $240m of the $666m of ex-US revenue in the basis quarter, 36%, from the IFRS geographic note. The UK is $120m and 'other countries' $306m, with no single country above 10% of group revenue. None of these can become verticals: only revenue is disclosed for them.
- SEASONALITY APPLIED, AND THIS IS THE MOST ARGUABLE CALL IN THE MODEL. Factors [0.9018, 1.0095, 1.0158, 1.0730] by ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average. Q3 signal 0.0158 against a 0.0099 spread is 1.59:1; Q4 signal 0.0730 against a 0.0366 spread is 1.99:1 AND the two Q4 windows TREND (1.0446 then 1.0812) - the exact shape for which Goldman's GBM seasonality was rejected here at 2.34:1. It is applied anyway because ex-US GMV fell 13.6% and 11.8% in the two Q4-to-Q1 transitions against 21-32% year-on-year growth, a two-for-two repeat a ten-quarter centred window cannot measure; because GMV-derived factors agree ([0.8815, 1.0270, 1.0042, 1.0873]); and because the FY guide implies a Q4 about 15% above Q3, which the model cannot approach if the line carrying 64% of revenue is flat. Left aseasonal, the group Q4 lift falls from about 9.5% to about 5%.
- Klarna states that provisions are seasonal - the Q1 2026 release said 'We expect our provision to rise in 2Q-4Q, solely reflecting the seasonality.' The engine does not seasonalise margins, so this line's transaction margin is a mid-year average and will run above the true Q3 and below the true Q1. The annual total is unaffected; the quarterly shape of the margin is smoother than reality.
- This is twenty-plus countries at very different maturities aggregated into one line. Sweden at roughly 60% transaction margin and a newly launched Southern European market are averaged together, and Klarna publishes nothing that would let the model separate them. The terminal 62% on the reported basis is 57.8% on the comparable pre-change basis, still short of the roughly 60% the release attributes to established markets today.
- capexIntensity is EXACTLY ZERO for the same reason as the US line: depreciation already sits inside the transaction margin and inside the overhead ratio, and group cash capex of $8m a quarter is below group depreciation of $12m.