DELL · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Quarters are labelled the way Dell labels them: fiscal, running a year ahead of the calendar, so 2027 Q1 is the quarter ended 1 May 2026. The six verticals are the six revenue lines Dell itself publishes, and they sum to reported consolidated revenue with zero difference: 16,132 AI-optimized servers + 8,543 traditional servers and networking + 4,334 storage + 13,020 CSG Commercial + 1,589 CSG Consumer + 224 Corporate and other = $43,842M. Nothing is apportioned. Two boundaries are hard. First, Dell only disaggregated servers and networking into AI-optimized and traditional 'effective in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026', so those two lines carry two quarters of history here rather than nine; their FY2026 Q2 and Q3 values are individually undisclosed and the model refuses to interpolate a split the company never published, which is why consolidated history starts at 2026 Q4. Second, Dell reports operating income for ISG and CSG only, never by product line, and the release states the CODM does not evaluate depreciation by segment. Every vertical margin here is therefore the SEGMENT margin applied uniformly across that segment's lines plus consolidated D&A intensity, and it is an assumption, not a disclosure. There is no honest AI-server-only margin to be had, which is why no scenario moves one ISG line's margin without moving the others. Where this model disagrees with Dell: the FY2027 guide of $167B, set against $43,842M reported and $44.5B guided for Q2, implies about $78.7B across the second half, an average of $39.3B a quarter - a 12% sequential fall from the Q2 guide with no operational reason given for it. This model meets the Q2 guide at $43.9B and then decays smoothly, so it lands FY2027 at about $176B, roughly 5% above the guided midpoint and 4% above the top of the guided range. The overshoot is entirely in the second half; every first-projected-quarter rate here ties to a disclosed segment guide (ISG roughly 75% growth, CSG roughly 20%, AI-optimized servers $15.5B) and each of them lands slightly BELOW what that guide implies. The gap is stated rather than tuned away. Net cash is negative $5,122M: core debt of $16.7B less $11,578M of cash. The other $14.7B of debt is DFS non-recourse borrowing matched by $13,950M of financing receivables and is deliberately excluded from enterprise value.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.