DDOG · Forward model · North America · Pomel case
What has to happen in North America
Model as of
This page changes North America inside the complete DDOG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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North America
Three quarters of Datadog's revenue and all of its recent acceleration. North America grew 40.6% year over year in the basis quarter against 23.6% for International, and the AI-native cohort that contributed high single digit percentage points of company growth is overwhelmingly US-domiciled. It is also where the disclosed risk sits: the largest customer began reducing usage in Q3 2026, and the Q3 guide absorbs the whole seven-point deceleration. Datadog discloses no hosts, ingested volume, seats or price for any geography, so growth on the reported line is the only honest driver.
Latest: $2.02B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $485M |
| 2024Q4 | $516M |
| 2025Q1 | $534M |
| 2025Q2 | $587M |
| 2025Q3 | $634M |
| 2025Q4 | $679M |
| 2026Q1 | $724M |
| 2026Q2 | $825M |
| 2026Q3E | $834M |
| 2026Q4E | $868M |
| 2027Q1E | $888M |
| 2027Q2E | $967M |
| 2027Q3E | $1.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.07B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.26B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.40B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.46B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.52B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.55B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.68B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.82B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.86B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.02B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is the North America line of the 10-Q revenue disaggregation table, the only revenue split Datadog discloses. The two fourth quarters are marked estimated because Q4 is never filed on its own: they are the fiscal year less the nine months, and the derived consolidated total lands within $4 thousand of the house series.
- The footnote to the basis quarter puts United States revenue at $790.1 million, so the US alone is 70.5% of consolidated revenue and this line is very nearly a US line.
- The one-off step in the driver is the disclosed largest-customer reduction. Datadog reports no customer at or above 10% of revenue and never sizes this one, so the cut can only be modelled as a level change calibrated to the guide - the dollar figure is ours, not the company's.
- Attributing the whole Q3 deceleration to North America is inference from the growth-rate fingerprint - 40.6% here against 23.6% International, and a US-domiciled AI cohort - not from disclosure. The consolidated path is unaffected by the split; the Q3 2026 10-Q will show which line actually absorbed it.
- Datadog is a single operating and reportable segment whose CODM reviews consolidated net income, so the margin and capex inputs on this line are the consolidated ones. There is no geographic profitability disclosure and this model asserts no geographic margin difference.
- The seasonal factors are fitted to the eight disclosed quarters and are mild - Q1 runs about 2.4% below trend, Q2 about 1.4% above. They shape the quarters inside a year and leave the year-over-year path alone.