CVNA · Forward model · Wholesale sales and revenues · Garcia 3M case
What has to happen in Wholesale sales and revenues
Model as of
This page changes Wholesale sales and revenues inside the complete CVNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Wholesale sales and revenues
Wholesale vehicles sold - overwhelmingly trade-ins Carvana does not retail - plus ADESA wholesale marketplace fees; $1,343M in 2026 Q2, 18.2% of revenue. Volume is a by-product of retail transaction volume and of the ADESA auction business, so wholesale units track retail units with a wider amplitude. Monetisation is blended revenue per wholesale vehicle, because the reported revenue line includes marketplace revenue that Carvana's own disclosed per-unit metric explicitly excludes by footnote.
Latest: $5.00B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $618M |
| 2023Q2 | $777M |
| 2023Q3 | $610M |
| 2023Q4 | $499M |
| 2024Q1 | $657M |
| 2024Q2 | $720M |
| 2024Q3 | $786M |
| 2024Q4 | $678M |
| 2025Q1 | $863M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.02B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.18B |
| 2025Q4 | $988M |
| 2026Q1 | $1.08B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.54B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.32B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.61B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.83B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.08B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.76B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.15B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.42B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.74B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.31B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.80B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.13B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.53B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.96B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.58B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.99B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.47B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.74B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.50B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.00B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Fourteen quarters of the disclosed 'Wholesale sales and revenues' line, copied from the shareholder letters. Nothing here is apportioned or estimated.
- The price per unit is blended and derived, not disclosed: $1,343M over 105,052 wholesale vehicles is $12,784, against the $10,633 Carvana publishes for wholesale vehicles alone. The $226M difference is marketplace revenue that footnote 3 excludes from the per-unit figure. It is arithmetically implied by two disclosed numbers, so it is reported here as a residual and never promoted to a vertical of its own.
- Seasonality [Q1 0.99, Q2 1.04, Q3 1.10, Q4 0.87] is the most pronounced of the three lines, because trade-in supply and auction throughput peak with the spring and summer selling season and collapse in the holiday quarter. The Q4 trough is the reliable part - the weakest quarter in every year-window measured, on a within-quarter spread of 0.045. The Q3 factor is the shakier one: across all ten available ratios its spread is 0.165, because the ADESA marketplace inside this line has been scaling all through the window, so part of the apparent third-quarter lift is ramp rather than season.
- The units in the driver are the deseasonalised 101,012 rather than the printed 105,052, for the same reason as retail: the engine reapplies the 1.04 second-quarter factor itself.
- Wholesale grew 44.4% in units and fell 1.1% in revenue per vehicle in the same quarter. This line adds volume, not price, which is why the price drift starts negative and only recovers to a nominal 0.3% a quarter.
- The 11.76% margin is disclosed wholesale gross profit of $158M over $1,343M of wholesale revenue. No capital expenditure is assigned here: Carvana discloses no capex split, and the reconditioning and inspection capacity it is actually building serves the retail line.