CBRS · Forward model · Cloud and other services · Bull case
What has to happen in Cloud and other services
Model as of
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Cloud and other services
The inference service, and now the company. Cerebras contracts multi-year datacentre capacity, leases and fits out the sites, installs its own systems and recognises revenue over time as capacity is delivered and consumed: $125.6M of the quarter's $126.0M was over-time revenue. The line grew 281% year over year on GAAP and is 70% of consolidated revenue. Economically this is a capacity business, but live megawatts, revenue per megawatt and utilisation are all undisclosed - the only capacity figure given is a combined 'more than 600 megawatts of data center capacity that is either live now or will be delivered by the end of 2027' - so it is driven as a growth line anchored to the disclosed $25.4bn RPO recognition schedule rather than on an invented earning base.
Latest: $3.43B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $17M |
| 2024Q2 | $15M |
| 2024Q3 | $22M |
| 2024Q4 | $24M |
| 2025Q1 | $30M |
| 2025Q2 | $33M |
| 2025Q3 | $39M |
| 2025Q4 | $50M |
| 2026Q1 | $83M |
| 2026Q2 | $126M |
| 2026Q3E | $201M |
| 2026Q4E | $300M |
| 2027Q1E | $424M |
| 2027Q2E | $569M |
| 2027Q3E | $733M |
| 2027Q4E | $913M |
| 2028Q1E | $1.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.30B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.50B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.71B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.92B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.13B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.34B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.55B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.76B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.98B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.43B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Cost of revenue on this line went from $24.6M to $101.4M year over year while revenue went from $33.0M to $126.0M. The cost curve is tracking capacity rather than consumption, which is what a build-ahead looks like.
- $14.5M of the quarter's revenue is zero-margin datacentre pass-through billed on behalf of specific customers. It is excluded from core revenue and it is why the GAAP cloud gross margin reads 19.5% against a core cloud gross margin of 41.8%.
- The segment margin starts at the 41.8% core cloud gross margin rather than the 19.5% GAAP figure, and glides toward 62% - just above the 60%-plus core gross margin target the CFO stated on the call, which is a target for the consolidated company and not guidance.
- Capex intensity starts at 180% of this line's revenue. Trailing-twelve-month capex of $746.5M was 251% of trailing cloud revenue and the June quarter alone spent $416.9M, so 180% is already a step down from the current build rate.
- $1.5bn of undiscounted future minimum lease payments on datacentre leases executed in the June quarter had not commenced at 2026-06-30 and sit off the balance sheet. They will land in cost of revenue as the capacity goes live, which is more cost arriving before its revenue.
- No seasonality array is set. Removing the trend with a centred four-quarter moving average does not shrink the Q4 factor, it inverts it, from a naive 1.273 to a detrended 0.879, and the window-to-window spread of 0.172 exceeds the signal of 0.121.
- The $25.4bn RPO is consolidated, includes variable pass-through consideration and cannot be split between the two lines, so it is used to shape this driver's decay and to anchor the Bull case, never as a cloud-only backlog.