BMNR · Forward model · ETH staking and validation · Bull case
What has to happen in ETH staking and validation
Model as of
This page changes ETH staking and validation inside the complete BMNR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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ETH staking and validation
Basis quarter$46M
Final quarter$91M
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix100%
5,067,309 of BitMine's 5,901,112 ETH are staked through MAVAN, and every epoch they pay the company rewards in ether. Revenue is three numbers multiplied together: how many coins are staked, what annualised yield the protocol pays, and what an ETH is worth. The company publishes all three every week. At 5,067,309 staked, a 2.67% seven-day yield and a $2,511 mark that is $340 million a year, and it has said what full staking would add: $396 million. The line went from nothing to 98% of revenue in three quarters. The threat is in the yield, not the volume - the 10-Q says plainly that as more ETH is staked network-wide the per-validator reward rate falls.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$980000
Reported
2026 Q2
$10M
Reported
2026 Q3
$46M
Reported
Native ETH staking rewards earned as principal node operatorValidation and staking-as-a-service revenue from the MAVAN platformRewards on non-Ethereum networks supported by Pier Two, acquired 24 March 2026
Capacity energised
5901112 ETH held
at the basis quarter
5,901,112 ETH held at 30 August 2026, disclosed weekly under Regulation FD
Capacity added
50000 ETH held/qtr
changing −20.0% per quarter
133,888 coins short of the 5% goal, plus ~23,000 a quarter arriving as rewards in kind
Utilisation
86%
gliding toward 100%
5,067,309 staked / 5,901,112 held; the company rounds it to 86% in the same release
Revenue per ETH held
$17/qtr
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$2,511 per ETH x 2.67% annualised seven-day yield / 4 = $16.76 per ETH per quarter
ETH staking and validation
Latest: $91M (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $980,000.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $10M |
| 2026Q3 | $46M |
| 2026Q4E | $85M |
| 2027Q1E | $86M |
| 2027Q2E | $86M |
| 2027Q3E | $87M |
| 2027Q4E | $87M |
| 2028Q1E | $87M |
| 2028Q2E | $88M |
| 2028Q3E | $88M |
| 2028Q4E | $88M |
| 2029Q1E | $88M |
| 2029Q2E | $89M |
| 2029Q3E | $89M |
| 2029Q4E | $89M |
| 2030Q1E | $89M |
| 2030Q2E | $90M |
| 2030Q3E | $90M |
| 2030Q4E | $90M |
| 2031Q1E | $90M |
| 2031Q2E | $91M |
| 2031Q3E | $91M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter above is a reported figure, not an allocation. The fiscal 2026 Q1 and Q2 10-Qs each print 'Revenue from staking' as its own line ($980 and $10,201 thousand) and the Q3 10-Q prints 'Revenue from staking and validation $45,743' on the face of the income statement. The four zeros are equally reported: native staking did not begin until November 2025.
- The capacity unit is an ETH the company OWNS, and utilisation is the share of them that is staked. That is what makes the model checkable: 5,901,112 x 85.87% x $16.76 a quarter is $84.9 million, which annualises to the $340 million the company disclosed on 31 August 2026, and taking utilisation to 100% gives $98.9 million a quarter, or the $396 million it disclosed for the fully-staked stack. Both to within 0.1%.
- Revenue per ETH is the ETH price times the annualised yield, divided by four: $2,511 x 2.67% / 4 = $16.76. The base case holds the ETH price FLAT at the 30 August mark, because a base case that embeds an ETH forecast is not a base case. The -1% quarterly drift is yield compression alone, and it is sourced: the 10-Q states that as the total amount of Ethereum staked on the network increases, the per-validator reward rate generally decreases.
- Utilisation glides toward a disclosed 100% at a rate of zero, so the base case does not assume the unstaked 834,000 coins ever get staked. That is deliberate: the staked count has been frozen at exactly 5,067,309 in every weekly release since 16 August while the stack kept growing. Moving the glide off zero is the Bull case, and it is worth 16.5%.
- Accumulation is nearly over, which is why capacity adds only 50,000 ETH a quarter and decays 20% from there. The company is 133,888 coins short of 5% of the ETH supply, weekly purchases have fallen from 53,501 to 7,430 and back, and about 23,000 ETH a quarter now arrive as staking rewards in kind whether or not anything is bought.
- Revenue is recognised GROSS: the company is the principal node operator and books the whole protocol reward, with amounts passed to delegators and network participants sitting in cost of sales. That inflates both revenue and cost against a net presentation, so this line is not directly comparable to a staking peer that reports net.
- MAVAN is still a captive platform. Nothing here assumes a single third-party client - the 10-Q concedes the company has 'limited operating history as a commercial staking-services provider'.