BABA · Forward model · Alibaba E-commerce Group · Bear case
What has to happen in Alibaba E-commerce Group
Model as of
This page changes Alibaba E-commerce Group inside the complete BABA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Alibaba E-commerce Group
The cash engine, and the only part of the group generating any. One reported segment since the June 2026 recut, combining the old Alibaba China E-commerce Group, AIDC, Freshippo and certain Cainiao commerce businesses. It earned RMB39,749 million of adjusted EBITA on RMB205,862 million of revenue - 19.3% - and it is what funds the AI build. Its problem is mix: China e-commerce, the highest-margin part, fell 8% year over year, while China quick commerce, the lowest-margin part, grew 45%.
Latest: $29.82B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $30.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $30.40B |
| 2026Q4E | $30.44B |
| 2027Q1E | $30.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $30.49B |
| 2027Q3E | $30.50B |
| 2027Q4E | $30.49B |
| 2028Q1E | $30.48B |
| 2028Q2E | $30.46B |
| 2028Q3E | $30.43B |
| 2028Q4E | $30.40B |
| 2029Q1E | $30.36B |
| 2029Q2E | $30.31B |
| 2029Q3E | $30.26B |
| 2029Q4E | $30.21B |
| 2030Q1E | $30.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $30.09B |
| 2030Q3E | $30.03B |
| 2030Q4E | $29.96B |
| 2031Q1E | $29.89B |
| 2031Q2E | $29.82B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Alibaba discloses this segment's adjusted EBITA margin (19.3%) but not its EBITDA margin. The 20.5% used here is the disclosed EBITA margin plus 20% of group depreciation of RMB11,814 million. The 20% share is an assumption.
- The five sub-lines above ARE separately disclosed for June 2025 and June 2026 and could each be a vertical, but adjusted EBITA is not disclosed below the segment, so a sub-line split would have to assume every margin. Nothing beneath the five is disclosed at all: Freshippo and the transferred Cainiao businesses are not broken out.
- No operational volume metric survives this recut - no GMV, no order count, no take rate, no average order value - which is why this vertical uses a growth driver rather than a unit or capacity one. The one volume figure disclosed is 88VIP membership, at approximately 64 million as of 30 June 2026, still growing double digits.
- Customer management revenue carries an accounting change: platform subsidies under the new business development programme are recorded as contra revenue rather than as sales and marketing expense. That is why reported CMR is -7% while the release's own like-for-like figure is +1%. The reported number is the one modelled.
- Restated June 2025 revenue was RMB198,812 million, so the year-over-year growth behind the 1% quarterly rate is 3.55%. Sub-line rates that quarter: China e-commerce -8%, quick commerce +45%, international -1%, global wholesale +7%.
- Capex intensity of 2.63% is 8% of the disclosed group capital expenditure line divided by this segment's revenue. Alibaba discloses no capital expenditure by segment; the 8% share is a judgement, and it is deliberately small because the build is a cloud build.