Affirm · Q4 FY2026

What the Street expects

QoQ and YoY are what the consensus implies against the prior quarter and the prior year.

Q4 FY2026 reported results

What to watch

1. The fiscal 2027 guide, not the quarter. This is the year-end print, and it is the only number on Thursday that speaks to anything the model does not already assume.
2. The income tax line. If a valuation allowance release lands, it is the largest item in the release and it is non-cash. Read EPS before and after it, and treat any headline that does not separate them as unusable.
3. Operating margin against the guided 9.5–11.5%. This is where an operating beat has to show up. Above 11.5% is a genuine surprise; the Street's high estimate needs about 15%.
4. GMV against $13.15–13.45B, and the take rate against 8.52% trailing. Affirm puts GMV in the first paragraph of the letter. Divide revenue by it. The guide implies the first sub-30% growth quarter in eleven.
5. Delinquencies and funding costs. In March, management said delinquencies rose but pre-attributed roughly half the increase to a smaller denominator from tax-refund seasonality, and reported the lowest average cost of funds in three and a half years.

Read the full preview: Affirm Guided the June Quarter to an 11.5% Operating Margin at Best. The Street's Top Estimate Needs 15%, and Affirm Has Already Flagged the One-Off That Could Bridge It. →

Estimate against reported

Estimates are the consensus we published on our own preview for that quarter; quarters we did not preview carry the reported figure only.

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