Affirm Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2026 Earnings Results vs. Expectations
ReportsAug 27, 2026
SlotAfter Market Close
Beats vs our estimate3 of 3
Results are out
This quarter has reported. The consensus below is what we expected going in.
What the Street expects
EPS · GAAP
$0.33
Not guided
QoQ+10.0%
YoY+65.0%
Revenue
$1.11B
Guided $1,080–$1,110M
QoQ+6.6%
YoY+26.4%
QoQ and YoY are what the consensus implies against the prior quarter and the prior year.
Also on the card
Reported GAAP diluted EPS
$4.62 (includes $1.45B deferred-tax valuation allowance release)
Derived EPS excluding the tax benefit
$0.48 (pretax $169.1M / 349.7M diluted shares)
Reported revenue
$1,166M vs $1.11B consensus and $1,080–1,110M guide
Reported GMV
$14.1B, +36% (guided $13.15–13.45B)
EPS consensus source
Nasdaq earnings forecast (Zacks basis), accessed 26 Aug 2026
Revenue consensus source
Zacks Consensus Estimate, 25 Aug 2026
Estimate range
$0.24–$0.50 across 7 estimates
Revenue guide
$1,080–1,110M (company)
Operating margin guide
9.5–11.5% (actual 12.6%)
EPS implied by revenue/margin guide
$0.33–$0.40 (our arithmetic); GAAP print $4.62 is the DTA
GMV guide
$13.15–13.45B, +26–29%
Model base fair value
$107.49 vs $77.33
What to watch
- The fiscal 2027 guide, not the quarter. This is the year-end print, and it is the only number on Thursday that speaks to anything the model does not already assume.
- The income tax line. If a valuation allowance release lands, it is the largest item in the release and it is non-cash. Read EPS before and after it, and treat any headline that does not separate them as unusable.
- Operating margin against the guided 9.5–11.5%. This is where an operating beat has to show up. Above 11.5% is a genuine surprise; the Street's high estimate needs about 15%.
- GMV against $13.15–13.45B, and the take rate against 8.52% trailing. Affirm puts GMV in the first paragraph of the letter. Divide revenue by it. The guide implies the first sub-30% growth quarter in eleven.
- Delinquencies and funding costs. In March, management said delinquencies rose but pre-attributed roughly half the increase to a smaller denominator from tax-refund seasonality, and reported the lowest average cost of funds in three and a half years.
Estimate against reported
Our published estimate
Reported EPS
Average surprise +73% over 3 graded quarters
| Quarter | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q2 | — | $0.23 | — |
| FY2025 Q3 | — | $0.01 | — |
| FY2025 Q4 | — | $0.20 | — |
| FY2026 Q1 | $0.11 | $0.23 | +109% |
| FY2026 Q2 | $0.28 | $0.37 | +32% |
| FY2026 Q3 | $0.17 | $0.30 | +76% |
| FY2026 Q4 | $0.33 | $4.62 | +1300% |
| FY2027 Q1 | — | not yet reported | — |
Estimates are the consensus we published on our own preview for that quarter; quarters we did not preview carry the reported figure only. Where a consensus was set on a non-GAAP basis, the reported column shows that same measure.
Every quarter
Read the full preview → Q4 FY2026 release page View AFRM stock page