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AAPL · Forward model · Wearables, Home and Accessories · Siri AI cycle case

What has to happen in Wearables, Home and Accessories

Model as of

This page changes Wearables, Home and Accessories inside the complete AAPL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AAPL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $437.69 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.18B 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $56.35B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Apple is spending like a company that expects an upgrade supercycle. R&D was $11,729M in the June quarter, up 32.3% year over year against revenue up 16.4%, and $34,035M across nine months against $25,684M; intangible assets, net rose to $20,342M from $11,093M since September 2025. The case is that the all-new Siri AI introduced at WWDC26 pulls forward replacement demand across a 2.5-billion-device base, lifting iPhone above the terminal 0.7% sequential path and Services above 1.8%. What it does NOT reach is any disclosed AI revenue: Apple has quantified none, so this is a spending fact plus a management framing, and it is the only case on this page whose driver change has no revenue disclosure behind it at all.

Wearables, Home and Accessories

Basis quarter$7.88B
Final quarter$7.18B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix4%

$7,883M in the basis quarter, up 6.5% year over year, and the product line with the cleanest calendar in the whole company because the Apple Watch and AirPods refresh lands in September and the holiday quarter does the rest. Apple reports Watch, AirPods, Home accessories and Vision Pro as one line with no sub-split and no units, so line-level growth is the only evidenced driver and the sub-businesses must not be separated.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $9.01B Reported
2025 Q4 $11.49B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.90B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.88B Reported
Apple WatchAirPodsHome and accessoriesApple Vision Pro
Sequential growth −2.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Deseasonalised trend: our share of the guided non-iPhone, non-Services remainder under supply constraints.
Wearables, Home and Accessories

Latest: $7.18B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7.52B
2025Q2 $7.40B
2025Q3 $9.01B
2025Q4 $11.49B
2026Q1 $7.90B
2026Q2 $7.88B
2026Q3E $9.07B
2026Q4E $11.32B
2027Q1E $7.47B
2027Q2E $7.30B
2027Q3E $8.52B
2027Q4E $10.78B
2028Q1E $7.18B
2028Q2E $7.09B
2028Q3E $8.33B
2028Q4E $10.61B
2029Q1E $7.11B
2029Q2E $7.04B
2029Q3E $8.32B
2029Q4E $10.62B
2030Q1E $7.14B
2030Q2E $7.09B
2030Q3E $8.39B
2030Q4E $10.73B
2031Q1E $7.22B
2031Q2E $7.18B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Apple bundles Apple Watch, AirPods, Home and Apple Vision Pro into a single reported line and publishes no split of it in any filing. Vision Pro is inside this vertical, not a separate one, and no share of the line is attributed to it here.
  • Seasonality [Q1 0.860, Q2 0.852, Q3 1.006, Q4 1.282] is derived from this line's own printed history. Derived, not assumed: each of the two full four-quarter windows in the printed history (2025 Q1-2025 Q4 and 2025 Q3-2026 Q2) gives a factor of value over window mean, the two are averaged per calendar quarter and normalised to average 1.0. A shape is only asserted where the amplitude clears the disagreement between the two windows by at least 2x. Wearables is the cleanest line on the page: amplitude 0.430 against a maximum between-window disagreement of 0.033, a ratio of 13.
  • The September launch step now lives in the seasonal index rather than in the growth rate, so the -2.5% deseasonalised trend is our share of the guidance-implied remainder: September prints $9,066M, +0.6% year over year against $9,013M.
  • The index assumes the usual September Watch and AirPods launch. A delayed launch moves revenue into the December quarter without changing the annual total, which no quarterly index can represent.
  • Margin and capex intensity are the uniform Products-level assumptions applied to every hardware vertical.
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