AAPL · Forward model · iPhone · Bear case
What has to happen in iPhone
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iPhone
Half the company: $54,252M of net sales in the basis quarter, 49.6% of revenue, up 21.7% year over year on the iPhone 17 family and the second consecutive quarter at exactly that rate. Apple stopped disclosing iPhone units after fiscal 2018 and has never published an average selling price, so the reported net-sales line is the only thing that can be driven honestly. Management guided this line directly for the September quarter - mid-teens year-over-year growth - and this vertical carries a derived seasonal index, so the sequential driver below is a deseasonalised trend rate, not a printed step.
Latest: $71.53B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $46.84B |
| 2025Q2 | $44.58B |
| 2025Q3 | $49.02B |
| 2025Q4 | $85.27B |
| 2026Q1 | $56.99B |
| 2026Q2 | $54.25B |
| 2026Q3E | $56.10B |
| 2026Q4E | $100.82B |
| 2027Q1E | $62.92B |
| 2027Q2E | $61.42B |
| 2027Q3E | $62.55B |
| 2027Q4E | $110.93B |
| 2028Q1E | $68.41B |
| 2028Q2E | $66.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $66.69B |
| 2028Q4E | $117.31B |
| 2029Q1E | $71.83B |
| 2029Q2E | $68.95B |
| 2029Q3E | $69.20B |
| 2029Q4E | $121.13B |
| 2030Q1E | $73.85B |
| 2030Q2E | $70.62B |
| 2030Q3E | $70.63B |
| 2030Q4E | $123.28B |
| 2031Q1E | $74.97B |
| 2031Q2E | $71.53B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is the disclosed iPhone line from the 'Net sales by category' footnote of a Form 8-K exhibit. Nothing on this line is apportioned or estimated.
- Seasonality [Q1 0.879, Q2 0.837, Q3 0.834, Q4 1.450] is derived from this line's own six printed quarters. Derived, not assumed: each of the two full four-quarter windows in the printed history (2025 Q1-2025 Q4 and 2025 Q3-2026 Q2) gives a factor of value over window mean, the two are averaged per calendar quarter and normalised to average 1.0. A shape is only asserted where the amplitude clears the disagreement between the two windows by at least 2x. iPhone's amplitude is 0.616 against a maximum between-window disagreement of 0.122, a ratio of 5.1, so the December step is signal.
- Because the seasonal index carries the shape, growthQoQ is a DESEASONALISED trend rate. The printed September step it produces is $54,252M to $56,379M, +3.9% sequential and +15.0% year over year, which is the guided mid-teens; the December quarter that follows is $101.8B against $85,269M printed a year earlier.
- Apple has published no iPhone unit count since fiscal 2018 and no average selling price ever, so a units-times-price driver would have to import a third-party estimate and present it as company data. It does not exist here.
- The 43.1% margin is the disclosed Products gross margin of 40.07% ($47,153M of Products cost of sales on $78,678M of Products net sales) plus a uniform 3.0-point revenue share of company D&A. Apple discloses cost of sales for Products and Services only, so all four hardware verticals carry the same assumed margin.
- September-quarter supply constraints were guided to increase significantly sequentially and were named for iPhone, and memory costs are guided higher again; both sit inside the sequential growth rate rather than in a separate cost line.