On 29 September FERC accepted PJM's Reliability Backstop Procurement and suspended it to 28 February 2027, parking cost allocation, Transmission Owner exit rules and load-serving-entity collateral for a paper hearing. The design survives: a 6,831.3 MW target, equal to July's 2028/29 auction shortfall, a $555/MW-day MW-weighted cap, terms up to 15 years. Lost: the 30 September to 21 October offer window, and any result before December's 2029/30 auction.
For Vistra, the price-taker rule is what counts. Only new resources may bid, so its existing PJM nuclear and gas fleet earns nothing here, and every MW procured must then bid into PJM's capacity auctions as a price-taker. Supply like that lowers clearing prices. July's auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap with 524.7 MW of new generation and uprates; pushing the fix back five months or more suits an incumbent seller.
Sizing the pot, our arithmetic: 6,831.3 MW × $555 × 365 = $1.384bn a year, ~$20.8bn over 15 years. A ceiling, not a clearing value: bilateral deals PJM matches first shrink the target. None of it is Vistra revenue, and the order moves no driver we model.
Order Accepting Reliability Backstop Procurement, 196 FERC ¶ 61,245 — 29 September 2026
Acceptance, suspension date and hearing issues: FERC's order of 29 September, as reported by Bloomberg and Utility Dive. Shortfall, clearing price and new generation: PJM's 2028/2029 auction report of 14 July. Eligibility, cap, terms, price-taker rule and window: PJM's backstop fact sheet. The ceilings are ours. PJM had set no new calendar as of 30 September.
