Amazon reported its Q4 2025 and full year results on February 5, 2026, showing solid revenue growth, accelerating AWS performance, and strong profitability improvements. However, the headline surprise was the aggressive 2026 capital expenditure guidance, which drove a negative stock reaction due to concerns over near-term free cash flow pressure.
Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | Q4 2025 | YoY Change | Full Year 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $213.4 billion | +14% (+12% ex-FX) | $716.9 billion | +12% |
| - North America | $127.1 billion | +10% | $426.3 billion | +10% |
| - International | $50.7 billion | +17% (+11% ex-FX) | $161.9 billion | +13% (+10% ex-FX) |
| - AWS | $35.6 billion | +24% | $128.7 billion | +20% |
| Operating Income | $25.0 billion | +18% (approx.) | $80.0 billion | +17% |
| - North America | $11.5 billion | N/A | $29.6 billion | +18% |
| - International | $1.0 billion | Down slightly | $4.7 billion | +24% |
| - AWS | $12.5 billion | +18% | $45.6 billion | +15% |
| Net Income | $21.2 billion ($1.95/share) | +6% | $77.7 billion ($7.17/share) | +31% |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | N/A | N/A | $139.5 billion | +20% |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | N/A | N/A | $11.2 billion | Down sharply |
Positives
- Revenue beat estimates ($213.4B vs. ~$211-212B expected).
- AWS growth accelerated to 24% YoY (fastest in 13 quarters), reaching a $142B annualized run rate, driven by AI demand.
- Profitability expanded significantly, with full-year operating income up to $80B.
- Advertising revenue grew 22% to $21.3B in Q4.
Negatives
- Slight EPS miss ($1.95 vs. ~$1.97 expected).
- Free cash flow declined sharply to $11.2B (TTM) due to elevated capex.
- Special charges impacted Q4 operating income by ~$3.4B.
Overall, the results reflect continued e-commerce stabilization, international improvement, and AWS strength amid AI tailwinds.
2026 CAPEX Guidance and Changes
The major market-moving item was Amazon's guidance for approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.
Comparison to 2025
- 2025 actual capex (purchases of property and equipment, net): ~$128-131 billion (up ~65% YoY from prior year, largely AI-driven).
- 2026 guidance: ~$200 billion.
- Change: Increase of ~$69-72 billion, or +52-56% YoY.
This significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations (analysts had modeled ~$150B or lower).
Drivers and Breakdown
- Primarily infrastructure for AWS (data centers, custom chips like Trainium/Graviton, networking).
- Additional investments in robotics, low-earth orbit satellites (Project Kuiper/Amazon Leo), and other areas.
- ~80% estimated to be AI-related by analysts.
- Rationale: Strong customer demand for AI compute capacity; current constraints are limiting faster AWS growth.
CEO Andy Jassy emphasized confidence in "strong long-term ROI," citing AWS's historical returns and the durable enterprise AI opportunity (productivity/cost savings).
Implications
- Short-term: Further pressure on free cash flow (already down sharply in 2025 due to capex ramp). This contributed to a ~9% stock drop post-earnings.
- Long-term: Positions Amazon as a leader in AI infrastructure amid hyperscaler arms race (peers like Google, Meta, Microsoft also ramping spend). If AI monetization accelerates, this could drive multi-year AWS growth and margins.
- No material change to prior analyst estimates pre-earnings; the $200B figure is now the consensus baseline, with risks tilted toward potential upside if demand remains robust.
Q1 2026 guidance was in-line: Sales $173.5-178.5B, operating income $16.5-21.5B.
Reactions to the $200B Capex Guidance
Amazon's announcement triggered a sharp negative stock reaction (~7-10% drop), driven by short-term concerns over free cash flow pressure, margin dilution, and uncertain AI returns. However, many viewed it as a strategic, demand-driven bet on AI infrastructure leadership, with strong long-term ROI potential.
Reactions split clearly:
- Critics (mostly short-term focused): Worried about immediate financial strain and execution risks.
- Supporters (mostly long-term bulls): Saw it as necessary to capture AI growth.
Key Analyst Reactions
| Firm/Analyst | View | Rating/PT Change | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.A. Davidson (Gil Luria) | Negative | Downgrade to Neutral; PT $175 | Capex rising faster than AWS revenue; risks to spending plans. |
| Wedbush (Dan Ives) | Cautious | PT lowered to $300 from $340 | "Overhang" until tangible AI returns visible; "prove-it mode". |
| Morningstar (Dan Romanoff) | Cautious | PT maintained | Constrains near-term margins despite strong AWS demand. |
| Seeking Alpha Contributor | Negative | Downgrade from Strong Buy to Buy | Cash flow strain, execution risks (e.g., Project Kuiper, AI overcapacity). |
| JPMorgan (Doug Anmuth) | Positive | PT lowered to $265 from $305; Maintain bullish | "Shock value" overstated; AI-driven spend is "a good thing" for long-term. |
| Morgan Stanley (Brian Nowak) | Positive | PT lowered to $300 from $315; Remain bullish | Spend "should not have been unexpected"; justified by accelerating AWS. |
| Deutsche Bank | Positive | PT lowered to $290 from $300 | Fears of poor returns "unfounded"; healthy ROIC on AWS. |
| BMO | Positive | Outperform reiterated; PT raised to $310 | Investors "misunderstanding" the capex opportunity. |
| Seeking Alpha Contributor | Positive | Buy; PT $250 | Aggressive but earnings-accretive long-term due to AWS demand. |
Most analysts lowered price targets slightly (reflecting near-term pressure) but kept overweight/buy ratings, emphasizing long-term upside.
Broader Market Sentiment
Critics — Traders, short-term investors, and some media highlighted "AI bubble fears", cash burn, and timing risks. X posts noted panic selling, ROI concerns, and comparisons to over-investment worries.
Supporters — Long-term investors and AI bulls called it bullish, a "buy the dip" opportunity, and essential for dominance. Many noted historical AWS ROI (~$0.8 revenue per $1 capex historically) and demand constraints justifying the spend. X users saw benefits for related stocks (e.g., semis, neoclouds) and viewed it as positioning for future AI use cases.
The divide reflects classic growth stock tension—Amazon is prioritizing scale in a hyperscaler "arms race."
Summary
The earnings demonstrated operational strength and AI momentum, but the elevated 2026 capex outlook highlights the high-stakes bet on generative AI infrastructure—rewarding long-term but punishing short-term FCF and stock sentiment.
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