Space Exploration Technologies Corp. · 2026 Q2

Consensus vs reported

QoQ and YoY are measured on the same basis as each panel's own consensus, so no panel compares two different measures.

2026 Q2 preview

Reported this quarter

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What we learned

1. Every question the preview raised resolved in SpaceX's favour and the stock fell 8%. Revenue $7,814M, +92% against a Street expectation near $6.72B, a loss of $0.09 a share against an expected $0.26 , and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3,538M.
2. Capital expenditure was $18,369M in one quarter — more than all three segments earned in revenue. $15,828M of it was the AI segment, against $749M a year ago. That line is why the print sold off.
3. Connectivity is the company. Starlink produced $1,656M of operating income while the consolidated result was a $143M operating loss . One profitable segment is funding the other two outright.
4. The AI segment stopped being a pure cost. Revenue $2,561M, +247% , with positive segment adjusted EBITDA of $1,146M against −$276M a year ago, and the operating loss cut 49% to $1,257M .
5. We cannot score SpaceX on the Rule of 40, and the gap is permanent. The release publishes operating cash flow for the six months only — $3,466M — and Q1 2026 predates the 12 June IPO, so no quarterly operating figure for it exists or ever will.

Read the full analysis: SpaceX's First Print Answered the AI Question and Made the Cash Question Unanswerable →

Coverage around this release

Estimate against reported

Estimates are the consensus we published on our own preview for that quarter; quarters we did not preview carry the reported figure only. Where a consensus was set on a non-GAAP basis, the reported column shows that same measure.

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2026 Q2 across the sector

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