While headlines chase drama elsewhere, Tesla's robotaxi deployment grows quietly and relentlessly. As of early February 2026, independent trackers show around 280 active robotaxis across key markets — roughly 195 in the Bay Area and 85 in Austin — with +45 vehicles added in the past month alone.
These aren't test runs. Tesla completed its first fully unsupervised rides in Austin in January 2026. The fleet is carrying real passengers, expanding geofences, and adding vehicles daily. The numbers are small compared to Waymo's ~2,000+ fleet, but the growth rate and cost structure tell a different story.
The Fleet Today
| Metric | Tesla | Waymo |
|---|---|---|
| Active fleet | ~280-500 | ~2,000-2,500 |
| Key locations | Austin (85-100), Bay Area (195-200) | Phoenix, SF, LA, Austin |
| Weekly rides | Early ramp | ~450K |
| Expansion pace | Rapid geofence growth; multi-city rollout planned for 2026 (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami) | Steady but slower city additions |
| Unsupervised rides | Started January 2026 (Austin) | Operational in multiple cities |
Tesla's fleet is smaller today but growing faster in operational areas. Waymo's larger base reflects years of head start — but also years of higher operating costs and slower scaling.
The Cost Advantage
This is where the thesis gets interesting. Tesla's target economics make the current ride-hailing model look unsustainable.
| Service | Operating Cost per Mile | Typical Fare per Mile | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Robotaxi (Cybercab) | $0.20-0.30 | ~$0.30-0.40 expected | No driver, purpose-built design, vertical integration |
| Waymo | ~$1+ | $1.50+ | Higher hardware burden (lidar arrays), premium positioning |
| Uber/Lyft | $1-2 | $1.50-2.50 | Driver wages dominate cost structure |
| Personal car ownership | ~$0.70 | N/A | Fuel, maintenance, insurance, depreciation |
At $0.20-0.30 per mile, robotaxi rides become cheaper than public transit for many trips. That's not a marginal improvement — it's a category shift. At those economics, the question stops being "will people use robotaxis?" and becomes "why would anyone own a second car?"
The Startup That Owns Factories
Most people still value Tesla as a car company. But if you look at the robotaxi business through a startup lens, what Tesla has demonstrated in the last few months is remarkable — and it's the part the market is underpricing.
Imagine pitching a mobility startup to investors: "We can expand to new cities faster than anyone, operate at a fraction of the cost, run on cheaper hardware, and — oh — we also own the factories that build the vehicles." No one would believe you. Tesla just proved all four.
| Capability | Tesla | Waymo | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geographic expansion speed | Doubled Austin geofence in weeks; 6+ new cities planned for 2026 | Years per city; deliberate, map-heavy process | Faster expansion = faster revenue ramp. Tesla's vision-only FSD doesn't need pre-mapped cities |
| Operating cost per mile | $0.20-0.30 target | ~$1+ | 3-5x cost advantage. At scale, this is the moat. Waymo can't close this gap without a hardware redesign |
| Technology approach | Vision-only (cameras + neural nets). No lidar, no HD maps | Lidar arrays + HD maps + cameras | Cheaper sensors per vehicle, no map dependency, faster deployment. Austin unsupervised rides validated the approach |
| Manufacturing & supply chain | Owns factories producing millions of vehicles/year. Cybercab purpose-built for robotaxi | No manufacturing. Relies on third-party vehicles (Jaguar I-PACE, Zeekr) | Tesla can scale production to match demand. Waymo is supply-constrained by partners |
| Custom silicon | Dojo + HW4 chips designed in-house | Uses third-party compute | Full vertical integration from chip to ride. Lower cost, faster iteration |
| Fleet scaling potential | Factory-constrained, not tech-constrained. Ready for 90K+ if cap lifts | Partner-constrained. No path to mass production | When regulation allows, Tesla can flood the market. Waymo can't |
No other company in autonomy has this combination. Waymo has the head start. Cruise is effectively dead. And every other player is years behind on either the tech or the manufacturing — usually both.
Tesla is being valued on today's fleet size. The startup framing says: value it on the slope of the curve and the structural advantages that make the curve steepen.
Regulatory Tailwinds
Current U.S. federal rules cap manufacturers at 2,500 vehicles per year exempt from traditional safety standards — critical for steering-wheel-less designs like the Cybercab. In January 2026, Congress began considering bills to raise this cap to 90,000 vehicles per automaker annually and preempt some state regulations.
No company is better positioned to exploit a higher cap than Tesla. With factories already running at scale, the bottleneck shifts from production to regulation — and that bottleneck may be loosening.
What to Watch
- Fleet growth rate — The +45 vehicles/month pace matters more than the absolute number. If this accelerates through 2026, the compounding effect is significant
- Geofence expansion — Austin's coverage recently doubled to ~85 square miles. Watch for new city launches (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami are planned)
- Cybercab production timeline — The purpose-built vehicle is the real margin unlock. Production start date is the key catalyst
- Federal exemption cap — If Congress raises the 2,500-vehicle cap to 90,000, Tesla's deployment runway opens dramatically
- Waymo's response — Can Waymo cut costs fast enough to compete on unit economics, or does the lidar/hardware burden become structural?
- Ride completion data — Safety metrics and ride completion rates will determine regulatory and consumer confidence
The Bottom Line
The robotaxi race isn't about who has the most vehicles today — it's about who can scale fastest at the lowest cost. Tesla's fleet is growing daily, the unsupervised milestone is behind it, and the cost-per-mile target undercuts every competitor and most forms of personal transportation.
The numbers are still small. But they're compounding. And if the Cybercab production ramp and regulatory tailwinds arrive on schedule, the gap between Tesla's fleet size and Waymo's could close faster than the market expects.
One car at a time adds up.
TSLA