$DASH has dropped 28% since January. Today's Q4 report lands into one of the ugliest setups in delivery stock history. And somehow, the analysts covering it just keep saying buy.
The Setup
DoorDash reports Q4 2025 after the bell today, Wednesday, February 18. The stock closed around $163 yesterday — down 28% year-to-date — dragged lower by the same broad tech selloff that's hit everything from $SHOP to $AMZN.
But here's what makes this interesting: nothing about DoorDash's business has actually broken. Q3 was strong. Orders grew 21%. Revenue jumped 27% to $3.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA hit $754 million, up 41% year over year. The Deliveroo acquisition closed. DashPass had a record quarter.
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The stock fell anyway.
What Wall Street Expects
| Metric | Q4 Estimate | Q3 Actual | Y/Y Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.97B | $3.4B | +38% |
| EPS | $0.58 | $0.55 | +76% |
| Marketplace GOV | $29.2B | $25.0B | +17% |
| Total Orders | 888M | 776M | +14% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $774M | $754M | +41%* |
*Q3 Y/Y figure. Q4 EBITDA guidance range was $710M-$810M.
The revenue jump looks massive at 38%, but a chunk of that comes from Deliveroo consolidation — it's adding roughly $200M in EBITDA on a full-year basis. Strip Deliveroo out and you're looking at something closer to 20% organic growth. Still solid. Not the moonshot the headline number implies.
The Bull Case
Bank of America just dropped its price target from $305 to $260 but kept the Buy rating. Their thesis is simple: the selloff is overdone.
At $163, DoorDash trades at roughly 15x 2027 US restaurant EBITDA. For a company growing revenue 20%+ organically with expanding margins, that's cheap by delivery-platform standards. Uber traded at 20x a year ago on slower growth.
The real growth engine isn't food anymore. It's everything else. Grocery, alcohol, convenience, electronics, home improvement — these categories are growing faster than restaurant delivery and carry better unit economics. DoorDash's partner list now reads like a retail directory: Home Depot, Kroger, Dollar General, Ace Hardware. Even Waymo is delivering through DoorDash.
BofA expects full-year 2026 EBITDA of $3.6 billion. If they're right, you're buying DoorDash at roughly 10x forward EBITDA. That's value territory for a company that's still growing at 20%.
The Bear Case
Two words: margin pressure.
BofA lowered its Q1 2026 EBITDA estimate to $759M from $783M, well below the Street at $804M. The explanation? Front-loaded investment spending and potential weather impacts. Translation: DoorDash is going to spend aggressively to defend market share and integrate Deliveroo, and margins will take a hit.
Competition is the other problem. Uber Eats isn't going anywhere. Instacart is pushing into restaurant delivery. Amazon just launched same-day grocery in new markets. The delivery business is a knife fight, and every player is subsidizing growth.
Then there's the stock's technical picture. Down 28% into earnings is brutal momentum. Even a solid beat could get sold if guidance disappoints. And DoorDash's track record on beats is inconsistent — they've missed EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters.
What to Watch Tonight
Forget the headline EPS number. Three things matter:
1. Q1 EBITDA guidance. If DoorDash guides above $800M, the margin-pressure fears fade. Below $750M and this stock has more downside.
2. Retail category growth. DoorDash's entire thesis depends on becoming more than a food delivery app. Total orders need to grow faster than GOV, which means more orders at lower average values — the retail playbook. If retail is decelerating, that's a problem.
3. Deliveroo integration update. The $200M EBITDA contribution is baked into every full-year estimate. Any hint that integration is harder or slower than expected, and those numbers come down fast.
Bottom Line
DoorDash at $163 is either a gift or a falling knife. The business is genuinely strong — 20%+ organic growth, expanding margins before Deliveroo, and a retail pivot that's working. But the stock's momentum is terrible, margins face near-term pressure, and tonight's guidance will make or break the next 10% move.
If Q1 guidance comes in above $800M EBITDA and retail orders keep accelerating, this is one of the best setups in delivery stocks. If management sandbangs Q1, the 28% drop might just be the warmup.
We lean bullish at this price, but we'd wait for the print.
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