Upstart reports Q4 2025 results today after market close. The AI lending platform has been on a wild ride — from pandemic darling to 90%+ drawdown to what might finally be a real turnaround. Tonight's print matters.
The Comeback Story in Numbers
Upstart's journey from hero to zero and back is one of the most dramatic in fintech. Here's the earnings track record:
| Quarter | EPS | Revenue | YoY Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | $0.63 | $305M | +252% |
| Q1 2022 | $0.34 | $310M | +156% |
| Q2 2022 | -$0.36 | $228M | +18% |
| Q3 2022 | -$0.69 | $157M | -31% |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.60 | $147M | -52% |
| Q1 2023 | -$1.58 | $103M | -67% |
| Q2 2023 | -$0.34 | $136M | -40% |
| Q3 2023 | -$0.48 | $135M | -14% |
| Q4 2023 | -$0.47 | $140M | -5% |
| Q1 2024 | -$0.74 | $128M | +24% |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.62 | $128M | -6% |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.07 | $162M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.03 | $213M | +67% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.05 | $257M | +101% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.23 | $277M | +71% |
The pattern: After nine consecutive quarters of losses, Upstart turned profitable in Q2 2025. The last three quarters show accelerating revenue growth and improving margins. This is the turnaround bulls have been waiting for.
But there's a catch: Q3 2025 revenue came in 1.3% light of estimates, and full-year guidance disappointed. The stock is down 15% in the last month.
Q4 2025 Consensus Estimates
Here's what Wall Street expects tonight:
| Metric | Estimate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $0.46–0.47 | +77–81% |
| Total Revenue | $288–289M | +32% |
| Full Year 2025 Revenue | ~$1.035B | +97% |
| Expected GAAP Net Income | ~$50M | Turn to profit |
Key context:
- Revenue growth is decelerating (71% in Q3 → 32% expected in Q4)
- But profitability is accelerating ($0.23 in Q3 → $0.46 expected in Q4)
- Options markets pricing ±13.6% earnings move (~$5.27)
- Current price: ~$38 | Analyst PT: ~$57 (50% upside)
The Bull Case: AI Lending Finally Working
Upstart's thesis has always been simple: AI can price credit risk better than FICO scores. During the 2022-2024 rate hiking cycle, that thesis got crushed as funding dried up and loan demand collapsed.
Now the winds have shifted:
- Funding partnerships expanding — More capital partners means more loans to originate
- AI model improvements — Claiming 30%+ better default prediction vs. traditional models
- New verticals — Auto lending, home equity, small business — all growing
- Macro tailwinds — If rates come down, loan demand explodes
The Bear Case: Growth Deceleration
The skeptics aren't wrong about the numbers:
- 32% YoY growth is a big step down from 71% last quarter
- Guidance has disappointed — Management has missed own forecasts
- Valuation stretched — At ~$3.7B market cap, stock prices in a lot of good news
- Competition intensifying — Every bank is building "AI lending" now
The X Sentiment (What We're Watching)
X discussion around $UPST is notably polarized:
Bulls pointing to:
- Profitable and scaling — the hard part is done
- AI models continue improving with more data
- Optionality in new lending verticals
- Short squeeze potential (high short interest)
Bears noting:
- Guidance misses eroding credibility
- Growth rate falling faster than expected
- Macro sensitivity hasn't gone away
- Insiders have been selling
The interesting angle: UPST often trades in a basket with $HOOD (also reporting tonight), $SOFI, and $AFRM. If Robinhood delivers strong results pre-market sentiment, it could lift the entire fintech cohort heading into Upstart's print.
What Actually Matters Tonight
Forget the penny beat/miss on EPS. Watch for:
- 2026 guidance — Does management see continued acceleration or more deceleration?
- Funding capacity — How much committed capital from lending partners?
- Conversion rate trends — Are more applicants getting approved?
- Take rate / margins — How much is Upstart earning per loan?
The stock has rallied hard from its 2023 lows (~$12 to ~$38). Tonight determines whether this is a genuine turnaround or a dead cat bounce.
Upstart reports after market close today.
UPST