$NBIS just posted a quarter that would make most CEOs weep with joy. Revenue hit $227.7 million — up 547% year-over-year. The stock barely moved. But Goldman Sachs just woke up, raising their price target to $160 today. Welcome to the AI infrastructure arms race, where printing money isn't enough if you're spending it faster.
Wall Street Catches Up
Goldman analyst Alexander Duval bumped his price target from $155 to $160 while maintaining a Buy rating. This marks the fourth upward revision from Goldman since September — they started at $120 and have steadily climbed to $137, then $155, now $160.
The stock popped 9% on the news, trading around $97-99. Still 40% below Goldman's target. The analyst community is finally catching up to what the numbers have been screaming: this is a rare hypergrowth story with actual revenue to back it up.
The Numbers
Nebius crushed its own targets for 2025. Full-year revenue came in at $529.8M, nearly 5x the prior year's $91.5M. By December, the annualized run-rate had already crossed $1.25 billion, ahead of management's guidance.
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $227.7M | $35.2M | +547% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $15.0M | -$63.9M | Flipped positive |
| Net Loss | -$249.6M | -$122.9M | Widened |
| Operating Cash Flow | $834M | — | New |
| Active Power | 170 MW | — | Beat 100 MW target |
Adjusted EBITDA flipped positive for the first time but missed the $22.55M consensus. Net losses actually widened to $249.6M. That's the tension in this story: everything is growing except the bottom line.
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The Capex Question
Here's where it gets wild. Nebius spent $4.1 billion in capex during 2025. For 2026, guidance is $16 to $20 billion.
Read that again. A company that generated $530M in revenue last year plans to spend up to $20 billion on infrastructure this year. That's roughly 38x revenue in capex.
The bull case: capacity is sold out through Q1 2026. GPU rental pricing keeps rising. Customer contracts are getting longer. Active power hit 170 MW by year-end, blowing past the 100 MW goal. They've contracted over 2 gigawatts and plan to connect 1 GW in 2026 across nine new data centers.
The bear case: management says 60% of capex will come from internal sources (cash, operating cash flow, customer prepayments). The other 40% means more debt and potential asset sales. At $3.7B in cash, the math only works if revenue acceleration continues at this pace. Any slowdown and the balance sheet gets uncomfortable fast.
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2026 Guidance
Management guided $3 to $3.4 billion in revenue for 2026 with 40% adjusted EBITDA margins. That's roughly 6x 2025 revenue. If they hit the midpoint, we're looking at around $1.3 billion in EBITDA on $3.2 billion in revenue.
Adjusted EBIT will remain negative — they said so explicitly. Medium-term EBIT margin target is 20-30%. Translation: profitability is a 2027-2028 story at the earliest.
What the Market Is Missing
$NBIS is getting punished for having a spending problem that's actually a demand problem. Their capacity is sold out. GPU pricing is rising. Customers are signing longer deals and prepaying. Operating cash flow hit $834M in Q4 alone.
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Goldman's steady revisions signal the Street is finally getting it. This looks a lot like early AWS: massive upfront spending that looks insane until it creates a moat nobody else can cross. The difference is Nebius doesn't have Amazon's balance sheet behind it. They're funding a hyperscaler buildout on a mid-cap budget.
Consensus targets now sit around $150-155, with some bulls as high as $211. Goldman's $160 is bullish but not an outlier. The stock needs to prove it can execute on that massive capex plan.
Bottom Line
Nebius is growing faster than almost any public company in the AI space. The question isn't demand — it's funding. If they can finance $16-20B in capex without destroying the equity, this is the cheapest AI infrastructure play on the market. Goldman's upgrade shows Wall Street is starting to believe. The risk is execution at this scale with limited balance sheet flexibility.
NBIS