$IREN just got added to the MSCI USA Index, effective February 27. A year ago, this company was mining Bitcoin at scale. Now it's sitting on a $9.7 billion AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft and targeting $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue by end of 2026.
That's not a pivot. That's a metamorphosis.
The Microsoft Deal
The core of IREN's transformation is a five-year, $9.7 billion GPU cloud services agreement signed with Microsoft in November 2025. IREN provides access to NVIDIA GB300 GPUs at its Childress, Texas campus — phased deployment through 2026, targeting 200 MW of critical IT load across four build phases.
Microsoft put down a 20% prepayment. IREN is buying roughly $5.8 billion in GPUs and equipment from Dell to fulfill it. Once fully ramped, the contract alone drives an estimated $1.94 billion in annualized run-rate revenue.
The broader target of $3.4 billion in AI Cloud ARR by end of 2026 factors in additional GPU deployments at British Columbia sites — roughly 63,000 more GPUs beyond the Microsoft deal. Not all of that is fully contracted yet, but the pipeline is there.
What MSCI Inclusion Means
The MSCI USA Index covers large and mid-cap stocks representing about 85% of U.S. free-float market cap. Getting added means passive index funds and ETFs tracking MSCI USA have to buy $IREN shares. Forced buying from some of the biggest capital pools on the planet.
IREN announced the inclusion on February 12. The effective date — February 27 — is when the rebalancing kicks in. For a stock that was a niche crypto miner eighteen months ago, this is institutional legitimacy of a different order.
The Numbers
The stock is up 206% over twelve months, from roughly $13 to the $40-42 range. But the last month has been rough — a 24-25% pullback as the market digests the transition.
Recent quarterly revenue (Q2 FY2026, ended around December 2025) came in at roughly $185 million, down sequentially as Bitcoin mining revenue declined during the AI pivot. Non-cash items and impairments weighed on the quarter. The trajectory is clear though: revenue has grown sharply year-over-year, and the AI ramp is just getting started.
At a $6 billion market cap, the stock is priced for execution. Hit the $3.4B ARR target and it looks cheap. Miss it and you're holding an expensive ex-miner.
The Elephant in the Room
Customer concentration. Microsoft is the contract. If that relationship changes — if Microsoft builds more capacity in-house, if timelines slip on permitting or GPU delivery — the thesis takes a real hit.
Going from current revenue to a $3.4 billion ARR run rate means roughly quadrupling the business in under a year. That's possible in modular data center builds when you have secured power (4.5 GW by 2028, including a planned 1.6 GW AI campus in Oklahoma). But delays in this space are common. Zero margin for error.
Competition is intensifying too. Core Scientific, Hut 8, and pure-play data center operators are all chasing the same hyperscaler contracts. IREN's edge is power availability — many miners-turned-AI players struggle to secure it — but edges erode.
Bottom Line
IREN pulled off one of the cleanest pivots in recent memory. Bitcoin miner to $9.7 billion Microsoft contract to MSCI USA Index inclusion in about a year. The 206% gain reflects the story. The 25% pullback reflects the market wanting proof.
The February 27 rebalancing provides a near-term floor via passive inflows. After that, it's all execution. If IREN delivers, the current price is a starting point. If they stumble, it reverts to "expensive ex-miner with a big contract it can't fulfill."
High conviction for believers in AI power demand. Size positions accordingly.
IREN