Robinhood reports Q4 2025 results today after market close. We scanned X to gauge trader sentiment ahead of the print. The vibe: cautiously optimistic, with eyes on growth catalysts rather than the quarter itself.
The Earnings Track Record
Before diving into sentiment, context matters. Robinhood's recent earnings history shows a company that mostly beats — but with some notable misses:
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise | Revenue Est. | Revenue Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41 | $0.61 | +$0.20 ✓ | $1.15B | $1.27B | +$120M ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $0.30 | $0.42 | +$0.12 ✓ | $894M | $989M | +$95M ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $0.41 | $0.37 | -$0.04 ✗ | $917M | $927M | +$10M ✓ |
| Q4 2024 | $0.41 | $0.54 | +$0.13 ✓ | $930M | $637M | -$293M ✗ |
| Q3 2024 | $0.18 | $0.17 | -$0.01 ✗ | $661M | $637M | -$24M ✗ |
| Q2 2024 | $0.16 | $0.21 | +$0.05 ✓ | $640M | $682M | +$42M ✓ |
| Q1 2024 | $0.05 | $0.18 | +$0.13 ✓ | $553M | $618M | +$65M ✓ |
| Q4 2023 | -$0.01 | $0.03 | +$0.04 ✓ | $455M | $471M | +$16M ✓ |
The pattern: EPS beats 6 of 8 quarters. Revenue beats 6 of 8. But Q3-Q4 2024 saw back-to-back revenue misses — a rough patch the stock has since recovered from.
The last two quarters (Q2-Q3 2025) delivered strong double beats. Tonight's question: can HOOD keep the streak alive?
Q4 2025 Consensus Estimates
Here's what Wall Street expects tonight:
| Metric | Estimate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $0.62–0.63 | +15–17% |
| Total Revenue | $1.32–1.35B | +30–33% |
| Transaction Revenue | ~$810M | +20–21% |
| Options Revenue | ~$315M | +42% |
| Net Interest Revenue | ~$433M | +46% |
| Other Revenue | ~$82M | +77% |
Key drivers to watch:
- Options trading — Up 42% YoY, reflecting strong retail engagement
- Net interest income — Up 46% on margin lending and elevated rates
- Other revenues — Gold subscriptions driving 77% growth
- Crypto — The wildcard; some weakness expected to offset equities/options strength
What X Is Talking About
The Street numbers are well-known. What's interesting is where X traders are focused — not the quarter itself, but the growth story:
Growth catalysts stealing the spotlight:
- Prediction markets — Surging volume on Robinhood's prediction markets platform has bulls excited about a new revenue stream
- UK expansion — The ISA (Individual Savings Account) launch is being watched as Robinhood's first serious international push
- Palantir comparisons — Several posts draw parallels to $PLTR as a high-margin, rapidly scaling platform play
The Trading Activity
Options flow tells an interesting story:
- Traders sharing profits on calls, suggesting bullish positioning into earnings
- Others eyeing dips for entries, waiting to see if earnings create an opportunity
- A mix of "holding through" and "trimming ahead" — reflecting uncertainty about immediate reaction
Technical views are split. Bulls point to the recovery above $80–85 support as a healthy setup. Bears warn of potential pullback after the 2025 rally, questioning whether earnings alone can sustain momentum.
Watchlist Context
$HOOD keeps appearing alongside tonight's other reports:
- $LYFT — Also reporting, another "turnaround growth" name
- $UPST — Fintech peer comparison
- $COIN — Crypto exposure proxy
High-conviction portfolios mentioning HOOD often include $TSLA and $MSTR — the "conviction bet" crowd.
The Noise Factor
One caveat: a notable chunk of $HOOD mentions come from promotional crypto trading bots tagging the ticker in unrelated pump signals. The genuine trader discussion is moderate volume, not overwhelming.
Bottom Line
X sentiment leans cautiously optimistic. Traders are more focused on the long-term story — prediction markets, UK expansion, margin scaling — than on whether tonight's numbers beat by a penny.
The interesting question isn't the quarter. It's whether management commentary on 2026 growth initiatives gives the stock permission to re-rate higher, or if this becomes another "good quarter, muted reaction" scenario.
Robinhood reports after market close today.
HOOD