Affirm Holdings reports fiscal Q2 2026 results today after market close. Wall Street consensus sits at $0.28 EPS on $1.06 billion revenue.
If recent history repeats, those numbers are too low.
A note on timing: Affirm uses a June 30 fiscal year-end. Q2 FY2026 covers October–December 2025 — the holiday shopping quarter. That's why we're reporting "Q2 fiscal 2026" in February 2026.
Analysts Keep Missing the Turnaround
Affirm has been quietly crushing estimates as it transitions from loss-making BNPL pioneer to profitable fintech:
| Quarter | EPS Consensus | EPS Actual | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | $0.11 | $0.23 | +109% |
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.11 | $0.20 | +82% |
Revenue beats are tighter (~5%) but consistent. The EPS surprises are massive because analysts keep underestimating how fast margins are expanding as the business scales.
This isn't a company stumbling into profitability. It's a company that figured out real-time underwriting while competitors were still using FICO scores.
What Tonight's Numbers Might Look Like
If the beat pattern continues:
- Consensus EPS $0.28 → Actual could hit $0.40-0.50
- Consensus Revenue $1.06B → Actual likely $1.10-1.12B
- GMV → Watch for $13.3B+ (high end of $13-13.3B guidance)
Management guided GMV growth of 31-32% YoY. Holiday spending plus Amazon/Shop Pay/Expedia partnerships should deliver.
The Partnership Moat
Affirm isn't just another BNPL app. They're embedded:
- Amazon — integrated at checkout
- Shopify — Shop Pay Installments
- Expedia — travel financing
- Apple — partnership expanding
Each integration is a distribution channel that competitors can't easily replicate. When you're the default financing option at Amazon checkout, volume takes care of itself.
What the Street Is Watching
Credit quality — BNPL bears always point to loss rates. Affirm's real-time cash flow underwriting has kept delinquencies in check even as rates stayed high.
Funding costs — Higher rates pressure BNPL economics. Has the spread stabilized?
Active consumers — Growth here validates the product-market fit beyond just merchant deals.
Guidance — Full FY2026 consensus is $4.05B revenue, $0.99 EPS. Any raise matters.
The Setup
Stock trades around $60-62. Average analyst target is $90+. Morgan Stanley just upgraded to Overweight with a $76 price target, calling recent weakness a "compelling entry."
Options are pricing an 11-12% move either direction. That's significant volatility expected.
Bull case: GMV beats high end, EPS continues the blowout pattern, guidance raised. Stock runs toward $70+.
Bear case: Credit metrics deteriorate, guidance disappoints on macro caution. BNPL skeptics feel vindicated.
The Bottom Line
Affirm has beaten EPS by 80-130% in recent quarters. Analysts are modeling a company that no longer exists — the old, unprofitable Affirm. The new Affirm has real unit economics and is scaling into profitability.
Tonight's report either confirms the turnaround or raises questions about sustainability. Given the track record, betting against seems unwise.
Results after 4pm ET. Call at 5pm ET with Levchin, Linford, and O'Hare.
Position disclosure: This is analysis, not investment advice. We track Affirm as one of 28 stocks on R40.
AFRM