Hims & Hers Health dropped a bomb on the GLP-1 market today: a compounded oral semaglutide pill at $49/month (first month with 5-month plan), rising to $99/month thereafter. The product is already live on their website.
For context, branded Wegovy injections run $936/month. Novo Nordisk's new Wegovy pill launched at $149-199/month. Hims just undercut everyone by 50-90%.
Wall Street noticed. Novo Nordisk fell 8% on the news. Eli Lilly dropped as well.
The Numbers
| Product | Monthly Cost | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Hims oral semaglutide | $99 | $1,188 |
| Wegovy pill (Novo) | $149-199 | $1,788-2,388 |
| Compounded injectables | $199-299 | $2,388-3,588 |
| Ozempic/Wegovy injection | $936 | $11,232 |
At $99/month, GLP-1 therapy costs less than most gym memberships. This changes the addressable market math entirely.
Market Impact Projections
Based on current penetration rates and pricing dynamics:
| Scenario | US GLP-1 Users | Hims GLP-1 Revenue | Novo Revenue Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 14M | $725M | $1.2B |
| Bull Case (+10% penetration) | 23M | $1.1B | $3.6B |
| Bear Case (regulatory) | 11M | $500M | $600M |
The bull case assumes affordable oral pricing attracts the needle-averse and cost-sensitive populations. Surveys show 1 in 7 adults plan to start GLP-1s in 2026—up from 1 in 8 currently—but cost has been the primary barrier.
Why This Matters
113 million Americans are obese. Current GLP-1 penetration sits at 10-15% of eligible adults. At $936/month, that's a luxury market. At $99/month, it's a mass market.
The math on consumer savings:
- 14M users switching from branded to compounded = $10B annual savings
- 23M users in bull scenario = $18B annual savings
That's not just disruption—it's democratization.
The Absorption Problem: SNAC vs Liposomes
Here's the elephant in the room: oral semaglutide has <1% bioavailability without special technology. Stomach acid and enzymes destroy it before it reaches the bloodstream. Without protection, oral peptides are essentially impossible.
Novo Nordisk solved this by acquiring Emisphere for $1.8B in 2020 specifically to control SNAC (Sodium N-[8-(2-hydroxybenzoyl) amino] caprylate)—the delivery tech that makes oral peptides possible. SNAC enables stomach absorption by protecting semaglutide from digestive enzymes and helping it cross the gut lining. It's what makes Rybelsus and Wegovy pills actually work.
Hims doesn't have SNAC. Novo owns that technology outright.
Hims claims their pill is "formulated to protect the active ingredient during digestion and support absorption" using an alternative method—likely liposomal technology (encapsulating the drug in fat-like particles). Liposomal delivery exists in some cancer and HIV drugs, but for oral semaglutide specifically:
- No FDA approval
- No large-scale (Phase III) human trials
- Limited clinical data proving efficacy comparable to SNAC
This is the core controversy driving today's debate.
The Battle Lines
| Position | Key Arguments | Notable Voices |
|---|---|---|
| Critical | No proven absorption = ineffective; untested risks; "scam" or waste of money | Novo CEO: "Your gut enzyme will basically get rid of it." Medical professionals on X calling it a "dud" with "almost nothing" bioavailability |
| Supportive | Alternative tech could work; increases access; non-infringing | Hims: "Formulated to support absorption." Some argue liposomes could be disruptive if proven |
| Neutral | Liposomal oral semaglutide unproven in large trials vs SNAC; wait for data | Most analysts noting limited evidence either way |
Novo's CEO Mike Doustdar didn't mince words: he called Hims' pill a "waste of $49" and an "illegal, unapproved, inauthentic, and untested knockoff" posing safety risks.
Hims CEO Andrew Dudum took a different tone:
"We have spent years building the infrastructure required to put the power of choice back into the hands of the individual, and we are committed to ensuring providers can always make the best clinical decision for their patients with an array of safe options to help find care that fits their lifestyle. We're excited to find ways to continue bringing branded treatments to the platform across specialties. More choice on the platform is the best thing for customers everywhere."
Two CEOs. Two very different narratives. The market will decide.
The Legal Cloud
Beyond the science debate, Novo is threatening legal and regulatory action. Compounded medications aren't FDA-approved, but they're legal during drug shortages (which GLP-1s have experienced).
The implications:
- If critics are right and absorption fails → users see little/no weight loss → dropouts, complaints, lawsuits, FDA intervention
- If liposomes prove effective → market disruption continues
- Either way, the lack of clinical data is a real risk for Hims
What We're Watching
- FDA response — Will regulators crack down on compounders or let market forces play out?
- Novo/Lilly pricing — Do they match? They've already started cutting deals ($245-350/month for some programs)
- Hims retention — GLP-1 dropout rates run ~30% due to side effects. Can pills improve compliance?
- 2026 guidance — Hims targets $725M in GLP-1 revenue. Today's launch could push that toward $1B+
The obesity market was supposed to be Big Pharma's golden goose. Hims just made it a commodity—assuming the science holds up.
Hims & Hers (NYSE: HIMS) closed at $27.34, down 8.5% on heavy volume. The stock remains up 180% over the past year.
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